Isle of Wight: Seat Details

Your postcode PO34 5BU lookup

PostcodePO34 5BU
DistrictIsle of Wight
WardNettlestone and Seaview
Current ConstituencyIsle of Wight
Proposed ConstituencyIsle of Wight East
CountyHampshire
MP at 2019Bob Seely
PartyConservative
Predicted WinnerLabour

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Isle of Wight East, or click here to find another new seat.

Isle of Wight: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:113,021
Turnout:65.9%

The postcode (PO34 5BU) is in the proposed new 2023 constituency of Isle of Wight East. Click 'Proposed Constituency' link in table for full details.

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Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON41,81556.2%28.0%
LAB18,07824.3%35.9%
Green11,33815.2%10.9%
OTH3,2114.3%2.4%
LIB00.0%7.0%
Reform00.0%15.8%
CON Majority23,73731.9%7.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
30%
LAB
67%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
2%

Isle of Wight : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Isle of Wight constituency, the 'South East' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00087628) around the postcode PO34 5BU, and the Nettlestone and Seaview ward of Isle of Wight district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position8° RightCentrist2° Right11° Right
National Position16° NatNational12° Nat3° Nat
Social Position10° ConConservative3° Con1° Con
TribeStrong RightStrong RightCentrists
EU Leave %63%Balanced62%52%52%
Average Age60.161.155.450.449.5
Good Education50%51%45%53%49%
Employed45%42%48%59%58%
Homeowner97%84%70%68%63%
Car owner93%91%80%84%77%
Married70%61%46%48%45%
Ethnic White100%98%97%86%83%
Christian69%63%51%50%50%
ABC1 Class58%61%50%62%56%
Gross Household Income£48,728£42,192£38,844£50,167£42,397
Deprivation46%50%56%48%52%
Average House Pricen/a£346,225£267,761£409,816£313,528

Isle of Wight ranks #118 for "Leave", #318 for "Economic Right Position", #108 for "National Position" and #260 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Isle of Wight: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Isle of Wight

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Isle of Wight.

Isle of WightActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Isle of WightBembridge3,261CONCON
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,943CONCON
Isle of WightBrading and St Helens2,844CONLAB
Isle of WightBrighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet2,644CONCON
Isle of WightCarisbrooke and Gunville2,796CONLAB
Isle of WightCentral Rural2,915CONCON
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Shorwell2,981CONLAB
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,118CONLAB
Isle of WightCowes North2,842CONLAB
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood2,948CONLAB
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,937CONCON
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,191CONLAB
Isle of WightFairlee and Whippingham3,008CONCON
Isle of WightFreshwater North and Yarmouth2,651CONCON
Isle of WightFreshwater South3,169CONLAB
Isle of WightHaylands and Swanmore2,732CONLAB
Isle of WightLake North2,891CONLAB
Isle of WightLake South2,960CONLAB
Isle of WightMountjoy and Shide2,784CONLAB
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,485CONCON
Isle of WightNewchurch, Havenstreet and Ashey2,938CONCON
Isle of WightNewport Central2,737CONLAB
Isle of WightNewport West2,940CONLAB
Isle of WightOsborne3,165CONLAB
Isle of WightPan and Barton2,755CONLAB
Isle of WightParkhurst and Hunnyhill2,791CONLAB
Isle of WightRyde Appley and Elmfield3,060CONLAB
Isle of WightRyde Monktonmead3,092CONLAB
Isle of WightRyde North West3,107CONLAB
Isle of WightRyde South East1,755CONLAB
Isle of WightRyde West2,740CONLAB
Isle of WightSandown North2,691CONLAB
Isle of WightSandown South2,903CONLAB
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,957CONLAB
Isle of WightShanklin South3,004CONLAB
Isle of WightTotland and Colwell3,183CONLAB
Isle of WightVentnor and St Lawrence3,062CONLAB
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,883CONLAB
Isle of WightWroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch3,162CONLAB
 Total113,025CONLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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