Totnes: Seat Details

Your postcode TQ9 6NZ lookup

PostcodeTQ9 6NZ
DistrictSouth Hams
WardDartington and Staverton
Current ConstituencyTotnes
Proposed ConstituencyDevon South
CountyDevon
MP at 2019Anthony Mangnall
PartyConservative
Predicted WinnerConservative

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Devon South, or click here to find another new seat.

Totnes: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Anthony Mangnall  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:69,863
Turnout:74.7%

The postcode (TQ9 6NZ) is in the proposed new 2023 constituency of Devon South. Click 'Proposed Constituency' link in table for full details.

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Go

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON27,75153.2%29.5%
LIB15,02728.8%24.9%
LAB8,86017.0%26.7%
OTH5441.0%0.8%
Reform00.0%13.3%
Green00.0%4.9%
CON Majority12,72424.4%2.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
43%
LIB
24%
LAB
31%
OTH
0%
Reform
2%
Green
0%

Totnes : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Totnes constituency, the 'South West' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00102083) around the postcode TQ9 6NZ, and the Dartington and Staverton ward of South Hams district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position4° RightCentrist7° Right8° Right
National Position7° GloGlobal7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° LibVery Lib3° Con
TribeKind YuppiesProgressivesCentrists
EU Leave %38%Very Remain53%53%52%
Average Age56.656.256.251.649.5
Good Education68%66%51%52%49%
Employed51%52%50%57%58%
Homeowner82%74%71%68%63%
Car owner95%93%85%84%77%
Married56%48%50%47%45%
Ethnic White97%97%97%93%83%
Christian43%41%51%49%50%
ABC1 Class64%67%54%58%56%
Gross Household Income£43,842£43,542£38,129£41,731£42,397
Deprivation45%44%52%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£406,035£355,497£311,706£313,528

Totnes ranks #337 for "Leave", #240 for "Economic Right Position", #204 for "National Position" and #284 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Totnes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Totnes

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Totnes.

TotnesActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
South HamsAllington and Strete2,449CONCON
South HamsBlackawton and Stoke Fleming1,998CONCON
South HamsDartington and Staverton2,302CONCON
South HamsDartmouth and East Dart6,315CONCON
South HamsKingsbridge4,502CONLIB
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford1,502CONCON
South HamsMarldon and Littlehempston2,428CONCON
South HamsSalcombe and Thurlestone4,079CONCON
South HamsSouth Brent4,361CONLIB
South HamsStokenham2,264CONLIB
South HamsTotnes7,243CONLIB
South HamsWest Dart2,164CONLIB
TorbayChurston with Galmpton5,795CONCON
TorbayClifton with Maidenway855CONLIB
TorbayCollaton St Mary2,287CONCON
TorbayFurzeham with Summercombe8,243CONCON
TorbayGoodrington with Roselands238CONCON
TorbayKing's Ash5,378CONLAB
TorbaySt Peter's with St Mary's5,459CONCON
 Total69,862CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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