Batley and Spen: Seat Details

Your postcode WF13 4AA lookup

PostcodeWF13 4AA
DistrictKirklees
WardBatley West
Current ConstituencyBatley and Spen
Proposed ConstituencyDewsbury and Batley
CountyWest Yorkshire
MP at 2019Tracy Brabin
PartyLabour
Predicted WinnerLabour

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Spen Valley, or click here to find another new seat.

Batley and Spen: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Tracy Brabin  (LAB)
County/Area:West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:79,558
Turnout:66.5%

The postcode (WF13 4AA) is in the proposed new 2023 constituency of Spen Valley. Click 'Proposed Constituency' link in table for full details.

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Go

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB22,59442.7%44.3%
CON19,06936.0%27.9%
MIN6,43212.2%11.0%
LIB2,4624.7%3.0%
Reform1,6783.2%8.7%
Green6921.3%2.3%
OTH00.0%2.8%
LAB Majority3,5256.7%16.4%
Pred Maj

Result shown is the original general election result. Ms Brabin resigned the seat in May 2021 following her election as Mayor of West Yorkshire. Kim Leadbeater (Lab) won the seat in a by-election on 1 July 2021.

Chance of winning
LAB
84%
CON
15%
MIN
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Batley and Spen : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Batley and Spen constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00055608) around the postcode WF13 4AA, and the Batley West ward of Kirklees district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABLABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABLABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABLABLABCON
Economic Position3° LeftLeft1° Left2° Left
National Position14° GloCentrist7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position11° ConVery Cons10° Con3° Con
TribeCentristsCentristsCentrists
EU Leave %42%Balanced60%58%52%
Average Age43.846.348.949.849.5
Good Education50%40%43%47%49%
Employed62%55%56%55%58%
Homeowner63%62%66%64%63%
Car owner86%76%79%76%77%
Married49%48%47%44%45%
Ethnic White34%53%72%85%83%
Christian19%31%41%48%50%
ABC1 Class52%43%49%51%56%
Gross Household Income£42,716£35,765£38,016£38,897£42,397
Deprivation55%60%56%53%52%
Average House Pricen/a£143,376£165,086£196,988£313,528

Batley and Spen ranks #149 for "Leave", #369 for "Economic Right Position", #213 for "National Position" and #26 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Batley and Spen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Batley and Spen

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Batley and Spen.

Batley and SpenActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
KirkleesBatley East12,862LABLAB9393,19442313905671025,247
KirkleesBatley West13,642LABLAB1,1863,288694461176611715,938
KirkleesBirstall and Birkenshaw12,688CONCON2,6082,5682626811877822047,292
KirkleesCleckheaton13,226CONLAB2,2162,9114037702108562237,589
KirkleesHeckmondwike13,217LABLAB1,5373,1771575591307072056,472
KirkleesLiversedge and Gomersal13,923CONCON2,7822,7352607401918472307,785
 Total79,558LABLAB11,26817,8731,1933,5099254,4201,13540,323

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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