Aberdeen South: Seat Details

Aberdeen South: Overview

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:Stephen Flynn  (SNP)
County/Area:Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:65,719
Turnout:69.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP20,38844.7%51.1%
CON16,39835.9%30.8%
LIB5,01811.0%5.4%
LAB3,8348.4%10.7%
Green00.0%1.7%
OTH00.0%0.3%
SNP Majority3,9908.7%20.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SNP
90%
CON
10%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Aberdeen South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aberdeen South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position15° Left23° Left
National Position23° Glo15° Glo
Social Position19° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %35%38%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health57%52%48%
UK Born84%93%87%
Good Education50%36%39%
Good Job59%49%51%
High SEC63%55%51%
Average Age46.248.648.3
ABC1 Class65%50%54%

Aberdeen South ranks #591 for "Leave", #558 for "Right", #607 for "National" and #636 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aberdeen South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberdeen South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aberdeen South.

Aberdeen SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenAiryhall / Broomhill / Garthdee11,093SNPSNP2,28271866801763,8290307,703
AberdeenGeorge St / Harbour293SNPSNP373460312200202
AberdeenHazlehead / Queens Cross / Countesswells12,487CONSNP3,18855376302003,9350348,673
AberdeenKincorth / Nigg / Cove12,342SNPSNP2,06296827301175,1300208,570
AberdeenKingswells / Sheddocksley / Summerhill211SNPSNP301711038401146
AberdeenLower Deeside11,366CONCON3,50253828901143,4300197,892
AberdeenMidstocket / Rosemount4,034SNPSNP7333831110421,526072,802
AberdeenTorry / Ferryhill13,893SNPSNP2,2011,66734701395,2700239,647
 Total65,719SNPSNP14,0354,8782,468079423,326013445,635

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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