Antrim North: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Antrim North, or click here to find another new seat.

Antrim North: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:77,134
Turnout:57.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP20,86047.4%47.4%
UUP8,13918.5%18.5%
Alliance6,23114.1%14.1%
SF5,63212.8%12.8%
SDLP2,9436.7%6.7%
OTH2460.6%0.5%
DUP Majority12,72128.9%28.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
97%
UUP
2%
Alliance
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity45%32%52%
Average Age50.649.349.5
Good Education44%48%49%
Employed56%56%58%
Homeowner72%69%63%
Car owner90%87%77%
Married50%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian83%81%50%
ABC1 Class40%46%55%
Average House Price£142,583£148,218£309,210

Antrim North ranks #116 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim North.

Antrim NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,406DUPDUP1202774461130411071,374
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,092DUPDUP276345791920108061,195
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,509DUPDUP353396812250128071,433
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,264DUPDUP302376331750140071,294
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,677DUPDUP311436311820354081,529
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,449DUPDUP38974761127040071,398
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,576DUPDUP270465201310495081,470
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,469DUPDUP39661757148041071,410
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,715DUPDUP2621825051280466081,551
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,636DUPDUP2471954861230447081,506
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,649DUPDUP307426181400398081,513
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,393DUPDUP34237659225097071,367
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,812DUPDUP116203328830299051,034
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,070DUPDUP172119611236037071,182
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,636DUPDUP33848807252052081,505
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,443DUPDUP149183702310044081,396
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,263DUPDUP23543750203053081,292
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,107DUPDUP10945783212046081,203
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,077DUPDUP772834421460231071,186
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,787DUPDUP36347841283048081,590
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne1,837DUPDUP8293616205045071,048
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,043DUPDUP25738650171044071,167
Mid and East AntrimFair Green1,973DUPDUP792174491940180071,126
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,444DUPDUP32541718263041071,395
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,515DUPDUP189475581630471081,436
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,192DUPDUP30137691174042071,252
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,723DUPDUP254516562520332081,553
Mid and East AntrimKells2,451DUPDUP32442751232043081,400
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,223DUPDUP29238682202048071,269
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,263DUPDUP28641700169089071,292
Mid and East AntrimPark2,004DUPDUP111178608201040071,145
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,298DUPDUP225445781790278081,312
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2,140DUPDUP27937660193046071,222
 Total77,136DUPDUP8,1382,94220,8576,23205,634024244,045

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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