Antrim North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim North: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 77,134
Turnout: 57.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP20,86047.4%47.4%
UUP8,13918.5%18.5%
Alliance6,23114.1%14.1%
SF5,63212.8%12.8%
SDLP2,9436.7%6.7%
OTH2460.6%0.5%
DUP Majority12,72128.9%Pred Maj 28.9%
Chance of
winning
DUP
97%
UUP
2%
Alliance
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity54%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age48.547.248.3
ABC1 Class39%46%53%

Antrim North ranks #116 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim North.

Antrim NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,370DUPDUP1342714441120386071,354
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,086DUPDUP273325761900114061,191
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,480DUPDUP347366722200135071,417
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,231DUPDUP296346271720138061,273
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,636DUPDUP304406411850328071,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,379DUPDUP37670734121051071,359
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,516DUPDUP262435271340463071,436
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,386DUPDUP38157726140052071,363
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,635DUPDUP2521745091300432071,504
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,574DUPDUP2401884921250416071,468
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,631DUPDUP303406331450374071,502
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,343DUPDUP333346382170109061,337
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,779DUPDUP122198328830280051,016
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,072DUPDUP175117603233048071,183
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,551DUPDUP32544774240065071,455
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,507DUPDUP165186704311058071,431
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,276DUPDUP23541747200069071,299
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,061DUPDUP12042748201058071,176
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,319DUPDUP1043134961630240071,323
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,722DUPDUP35244815274061071,553
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,259DUPDUP118113736244071081,290
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,030DUPDUP25436640167056071,160
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,289DUPDUP1112505222250190081,306
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,375DUPDUP31438692253052071,356
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,432DUPDUP190435521610436071,389
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,105DUPDUP28734658165052061,202
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,679DUPDUP249486642540306081,529
Mid and East AntrimKells2,430DUPDUP31940739227055071,387
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,268DUPDUP29637689203063071,295
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,220DUPDUP278386801630102071,268
Mid and East AntrimPark2,121DUPDUP130186627206055071,211
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,295DUPDUP223425941840260071,310
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2,076DUPDUP26934634184058071,186
 Total77,133DUPDUP8,1372,94320,8616,23205,633022844,034

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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