Antrim North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim North: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 77,134
Turnout: 57.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP20,86047.4%47.4%
UUP8,13918.5%18.5%
Alliance6,23114.1%14.1%
SF5,63212.8%12.8%
SDLP2,9436.7%6.7%
OTH2460.6%0.5%
DUP Majority12,72128.9%Pred Maj 28.9%
Chance of
winning
DUP
97%
UUP
2%
Alliance
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity54%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age48.547.248.3
ABC1 Class39%46%53%

Antrim North ranks #115 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Antrim North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Antrim North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Antrim North at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Antrim North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Antrim NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle20149330640530496330
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East201419513429510110291
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North201423032443680118252
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South201419215416360124275
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills201419692393380294282
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2014328344285200270
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2014128197210140460180
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2014317284035100251
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2014183157198410341426
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum201419918117950441385
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2014201110387240352270
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute20142312444772098253
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin201413928263220496311
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2014117922865004229
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill20143010545840103425
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2014961313429307332
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville20141591463833068383
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2014573836622011428
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater201413237155220195309
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane20142774168667037262
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2014178330738049461
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2014231045149086367
Mid and East AntrimFair Green20145214207460180485
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm20142840480126072331
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2014125262345170391149
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry20142395459642058215
Mid and East AntrimGrange20142440370910335366
Mid and East AntrimKells20142773167449038262
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola20142266756648066209
Mid and East AntrimMaine20142480439530144343
Mid and East AntrimPark20147612927639031300
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone20142280348480295331
Mid and East AntrimSlemish20142175555242064212

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Antrim NorthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,4642171334631920393081,406
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,265255536711890119071,294
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,378273616782140124081,358
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,198249516491690130071,255
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,6942921046382080287091,538
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,60131471785210097081,485
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,4722391314591740401081,412
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,45729664744202091071,404
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,5172661255591920286091,437
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,5992731315311850356091,485
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,7922981146332010339091,594
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,339266556852140108071,335
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,62715686310114025806930
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,948217104539175072061,113
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,536304597492240105081,449
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,507248149661271095081,432
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,36522654814166084071,351
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,31019783775164094071,320
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,3321911505571760250081,332
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,50327463806195084081,430
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,3921901377311970104071,366
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,06124949623163086061,176
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,84723819071224602310101,627
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,24926051638246082071,284
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,3542311344611680343081,345
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,01022459646144068061,147
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,446266565652330269081,397
Mid and East AntrimKells2,43326756799177083071,389
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,16024271680160074061,233
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,134255506021760129071,219
Mid and East AntrimPark2,130216145588175086061,216
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,176244505221780242071,243
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,83920656587133063061,051
 Total77,1358,1392,94520,8606,23105,633024544,053

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim North.

Antrim NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,4642171334631920393081,406
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,265255536711890119071,294
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,378273616782140124081,358
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,198249516491690130071,255
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,6942921046382080287081,537
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,60131471785210097081,485
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,4722391314591740401081,412
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,45729664744202091071,404
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,5172661255591920286081,436
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,5992731315311850356081,484
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,7922981146332010339081,593
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,339266556852140108071,335
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,62715686310114025806930
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,948217104539175072061,113
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,536304597492240105081,449
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,507248149661271095081,432
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,36522654814166084071,351
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,31019783775164094071,320
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,3321911505571760250081,332
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,50327463806195084081,430
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,3921901377311970104071,366
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,06124949623163086061,176
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,8472381907122460231091,626
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,24926051638246082071,284
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,3542311344611680343081,345
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,01022459646144068061,147
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,446266565652330269081,397
Mid and East AntrimKells2,43326756799177083071,389
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,16024271680160074061,233
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,134255506021760129071,219
Mid and East AntrimPark2,130216145588175086061,216
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,176244505221780242071,243
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,83920656587133063061,051
 Total77,1358,1392,94520,8606,23105,633024044,048

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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