Ashfield: Seat Details

Ashfield: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Lee Anderson  (CON)
County/Area:Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:78,204
Turnout:62.6%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON19,23139.3%13.4%
MIN13,49827.6%27.5%
LAB11,97124.4%29.9%
Reform2,5015.1%21.4%
LIB1,1052.3%3.2%
Green6741.4%4.5%
CON Majority5,73311.7%2.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
11%
MIN
13%
LAB
48%
Reform
26%
LIB
0%
Green
1%

Ashfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position6° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
Average Age51.350.149.5
Good Education38%47%49%
Employed55%57%58%
Homeowner69%67%63%
Car owner80%81%77%
Married45%46%45%
Ethnic White96%86%83%
Christian45%48%50%
ABC1 Class44%53%56%
Gross Household Income£35,257£40,483£42,397
Deprivation58%52%52%
Average House Price£158,302£228,007£313,528

Ashfield ranks #14 for "Leave", #441 for "Economic Right Position", #28 for "National Position" and #155 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ashfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashfield

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashfield.

AshfieldActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldAbbey Hill2,323CONLAB123361322634931901,147
AshfieldAnnesley and Kirkby Woodhouse5,825CONMIN41484110670714187103,080
AshfieldAshfields2,934CONMIN219406593437444201,543
AshfieldCarsic2,696CONLAB118474312805434701,304
AshfieldCentral and New Cross5,318CONLAB2588137559012471902,579
AshfieldHuthwaite and Brierley5,558CONLAB3728149165912380902,868
AshfieldJacksdale2,585CONMIN191351463376139801,384
AshfieldKingsway2,424CONLAB150353432875535001,238
AshfieldKirkby Cross and Portland3,120CONLAB216479593558045901,648
AshfieldLarwood2,989CONLAB218454533557844801,606
AshfieldLeamington2,743CONLAB126461353065736501,350
AshfieldSelston5,005CONMIN3957058563511977102,710
AshfieldSkegby5,197CONMIN3867229263311878102,732
AshfieldSt Mary's2,825CONLAB195424463386341501,481
AshfieldStanton Hill and Teversal2,461CONLAB163362432895835901,274
AshfieldSummit5,053CONLAB2588116957911169102,519
AshfieldSutton Junction and Harlow Wood2,739CONMIN219367533186541501,437
AshfieldThe Dales2,355CONMIN172322452845135301,227
AshfieldUnderwood2,680CONMIN262352563337742301,503
BroxtoweBrinsley1,902CONLAB242304351595326201,055
BroxtoweEastwood Hall1,964CONLAB240354371404926001,080
BroxtoweEastwood Hilltop3,951LABLAB287893692799651102,135
BroxtoweEastwood St Mary's3,480LABLAB230732612479544701,812
BroxtoweGreasley77CONLAB131815210049
 Total78,204CONLAB5,46712,1731,3228,7211,85311,225040,761

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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