Ashfield: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ashfield: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Lee Anderson  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 78,204
Turnout: 62.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON19,23139.3%38.0%
MIN13,49827.6%27.6%
LAB11,97124.4%26.9%
Brexit2,5015.1%3.3%
LIB1,1052.3%1.3%
Green6741.4%1.8%
OTH00.0%1.1%
CON Majority5,73311.7%Pred Maj 10.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
62%
MIN
6%
LAB
31%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ashfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position6° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
British Identity21%27%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born97%90%87%
Good Education26%37%39%
Good Job40%48%51%
High SEC37%47%51%
Average Age49.548.948.3
ABC1 Class38%50%54%

Ashfield ranks #14 for "Leave", #441 for "Right", #28 for "National" and #155 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ashfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashfield

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashfield.

AshfieldActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldAbbey Hill2,319CONCON493434106622410171,452
AshfieldAnnesley and Kirkby Woodhouse5,835CONCON1,41492934144581,033423,654
AshfieldAshfields2,935CONCON724392285131593201,839
AshfieldCarsic2,694CONLAB557588134920444161,687
AshfieldCentral and New Cross5,345CONCON1,1189493599931,019343,347
AshfieldHuthwaite and Brierley5,564CONCON1,33884637104481,075363,484
AshfieldJacksdale2,588CONCON636366148827468221,621
AshfieldKingsway2,417CONCON550397197827422211,514
AshfieldKirkby Cross and Portland3,128CONCON774525315733516221,958
AshfieldLarwood2,989CONCON758412235632572201,873
AshfieldLeamington2,743CONCON559554145726489181,717
AshfieldSelston5,017CONCON1,2936712410045978313,142
AshfieldSkegby5,210CONCON1,2978133410648931353,264
AshfieldSt Mary's2,836CONCON684460175522522181,778
AshfieldStanton Hill and Teversal2,454CONCON589393134924453161,537
AshfieldSummit5,051CONCON1,0889143311747928363,163
AshfieldSutton Junction and Harlow Wood2,733CONCON713337225024546181,710
AshfieldThe Dales2,359CONCON575337224721459171,478
AshfieldUnderwood2,678CONCON716333215161478181,678
BroxtoweBrinsley1,888CONCON524245133539313121,181
BroxtoweEastwood Hall1,944CONCON587367413520150181,218
BroxtoweEastwood Hilltop3,924LABLAB8521,048746940341342,458
BroxtoweEastwood St Mary's3,477CONLAB750837666182352312,179
BroxtoweGreasley76CONCON25131106046
 Total78,204CONCON18,61413,1606391,62589013,49855248,978

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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