Ashford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ashford: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Damian Green  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 89,550
Turnout: 67.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,27062.1%60.8%
LAB13,24122.0%26.2%
LIB6,04810.1%4.5%
Green2,6384.4%5.1%
OTH8621.4%3.4%
CON Majority24,02940.0%Pred Maj 34.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ashford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right11° Right
National Position11° Nat3° Nat
Social Position5° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %60%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born91%88%87%
Good Education36%43%39%
Good Job50%56%51%
High SEC52%57%51%
Average Age49.549.148.3
ABC1 Class53%60%54%

Ashford ranks #167 for "Leave", #127 for "Right", #117 for "National" and #171 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ashford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashford.

AshfordActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford and East Stour4,366CONCON1,4661,040109020401082,927
AshfordBeaver4,422CONLAB1,2931,32710101720722,965
AshfordBiddenden2,346CONCON1,176232430910321,574
AshfordBockhanger2,053CONCON630591730450391,378
AshfordBybrook2,038CONCON766445540470541,366
AshfordCharing2,159CONCON987346410390361,449
AshfordConningbrook and Little Burton Farm1,535CONCON663240410380471,029
AshfordDowns North2,036CONCON873261920950451,366
AshfordDowns West2,319CONCON1,144227520980331,554
AshfordFurley4,344CONCON1,52791916702130872,913
AshfordGoat Lees1,847CONCON780294540470631,238
AshfordGodinton1,912CONCON785336480830311,283
AshfordHighfield2,035CONCON807305870980691,366
AshfordIsle of Oxney2,231CONCON1,149236360470271,495
AshfordKennington1,795CONCON846205570410541,203
AshfordKingsnorth Village and Bridgefield1,787CONCON803237460410741,201
AshfordMersham, Sevington South with Finberry1,751CONCON946149260330191,173
AshfordNorman1,984CONCON637517450920391,330
AshfordPark Farm North1,823CONCON739317790480401,223
AshfordPark Farm South1,807CONCON744306700400511,211
AshfordRepton3,049CONCON1,2575079601240602,044
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,969CONCON934238480440561,320
AshfordRoman2,128CONCON923324560510731,427
AshfordSingleton East1,759CONCON637368640760351,180
AshfordSingleton West2,003CONCON667474950550521,343
AshfordStanhope1,791LABLAB492561360720411,202
AshfordTenterden North1,951CONCON874316480400301,308
AshfordTenterden South1,852CONCON929206400390291,243
AshfordTenterden St Michael's2,118CONCON1,071223490450321,420
AshfordUpper Weald2,078CONCON1,071216380420271,394
AshfordVictoria4,197CONCON1,2131,17615401890832,815
AshfordWashford2,013CONCON795392480840301,349
AshfordWeald Central3,382CONCON1,5713907401420902,267
AshfordWeald North1,984CONCON951209410930361,330
AshfordWeald South4,277CONCON2,00954410009801182,869
AshfordWillesborough4,507CONCON1,560780327022801283,023
AshfordWye with Hinxhill1,903CONCON794267880500781,277
 Total89,551CONCON36,50915,7212,72303,08402,01860,055

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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