Ashton-under-Lyne: Seat Details

Ashton-under-Lyne: Overview

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Angela Rayner  (LAB)
County/Area:Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:71,002
Turnout:49.9%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB15,57543.9%27.6%
Reform8,78424.8%34.8%
CON4,37512.3%14.0%
MIN2,8358.0%7.7%
Green2,4817.0%8.4%
LIB1,4114.0%7.6%
LAB Majority6,79119.2%7.2%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
30%
Reform
68%
CON
2%
MIN
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%

Ashton-under-Lyne : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashton-under-Lyne constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Economic Position9° Left4° Left
National Position8° Nat1° Nat
Social Position6° Con2° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %63%54%52%
Average Age48.849.749.6
Good Education40%49%51%
Employed56%55%57%
Homeowner60%64%64%
Car owner72%76%77%
Married41%43%45%
Ethnic White79%86%83%
Christian49%55%48%
ABC1 Class46%53%56%
Gross Household Income£34,155£38,646£42,397
Deprivation58%53%52%
Average House Price£161,271£200,217£313,667
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ashton-under-Lyne: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashton-under-Lyne

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashton-under-Lyne. These are not local election results, which will be different.

Ashton-under-LyneActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
TamesideAshton Hurst8,320LABReform
TamesideAshton St Michael's8,991LABReform
TamesideAshton Waterloo9,014LABReform
TamesideAudenshaw9,196LABReform
TamesideDenton North East656LABLAB
TamesideDroylsden East8,321LABReform
TamesideDroylsden West8,545LABReform
TamesideDukinfield8,966LABReform
TamesideDukinfield Stalybridge93LABReform
TamesideSt Peter's8,901LABReform
 Total71,003LABReform

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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