Ayrshire Central: Seat Details

Ayrshire Central: Overview

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:Philippa Whitford  (SNP)
County/Area:Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:69,742
Turnout:66.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP21,48646.2%48.9%
CON16,18234.8%31.6%
LAB6,58314.1%13.9%
LIB2,2834.9%2.9%
Reform00.0%0.2%
OTH00.0%2.5%
SNP Majority5,30411.4%17.2%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SNP
86%
CON
13%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%

Ayrshire Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ayrshire Central constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position25° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position11° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %40%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health50%52%48%
UK Born97%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job46%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age50.748.648.3
ABC1 Class46%50%54%
Average House Price£138,270£174,688£309,875

Ayrshire Central ranks #544 for "Leave", #619 for "Right", #536 for "National" and #571 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ayrshire Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ayrshire Central

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ayrshire Central.

Ayrshire CentralActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine East9,932SNPSNP1,6911,0772031103,47701696,628
North AyrshireIrvine South8,754SNPSNP1,2151,195163903,11301455,840
North AyrshireIrvine West11,849SNPSNP1,7161,6902201204,07101977,906
North AyrshireKilwinning2,167SNPSNP32830045207330371,445
South AyrshireAyr North1,762SNPSNP25420935206460301,176
South AyrshireKyle10,323SNPSNP2,5188141751003,21001626,889
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton106CONSNP285200340271
South AyrshirePrestwick12,306CONSNP3,3256102691303,78402108,211
South AyrshireTroon12,543CONSNP3,6525812501303,66902058,370
 Total69,742SNPSNP14,7276,4811,36272022,73701,15746,536

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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