Bath: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bath: Overview

 Prediction: LIB hold 

MP at 2019: Wera Hobhouse  (LIB)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 67,725
Turnout: 77.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB28,41954.5%43.4%
CON16,09730.9%29.6%
LAB6,63912.7%20.5%
Brexit6421.2%0.8%
OTH3410.7%4.3%
Green00.0%1.4%
LIB Majority12,32223.6%Pred Maj 13.8%
Chance of
winning
LIB
78%
CON
19%
LAB
3%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Bath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bath constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LIBCONCON
Party Winner 2017LIBCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right7° Right
National Position20° Glo4° Nat
Social Position18° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %32%53%52%
British Identity33%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born86%92%87%
Good Education58%41%39%
Good Job61%50%51%
High SEC56%52%51%
Average Age45.250.448.3
ABC1 Class68%54%54%

Bath ranks #605 for "Leave", #275 for "Right", #593 for "National" and #629 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bath

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bath.

BathActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathwick5,757LIBLIB1,5147171,895276202144,429
Bath and North East SomersetCombe Down5,065LIBCON1,4937111,430355501703,894
Bath and North East SomersetKingsmead3,988LIBLIB7449471,185184301313,068
Bath and North East SomersetLambridge4,695LIBLIB1,0178801,481265001543,608
Bath and North East SomersetLansdown4,601LIBLIB1,2355601,526204901503,540
Bath and North East SomersetMoorlands2,627LIBLIB52345591122290802,020
Bath and North East SomersetNewbridge4,773LIBLIB1,1995901,668235101393,670
Bath and North East SomersetOdd Down5,385LIBLIB1,1418101,929415901604,140
Bath and North East SomersetOldfield Park2,376LIBLIB44933793314260691,828
Bath and North East SomersetSouthdown5,378LIBLIB1,0738951,899485901614,135
Bath and North East SomersetTwerton4,596LIBLIB6891,1421,442405001713,534
Bath and North East SomersetWalcot4,346LIBLIB7358631,552194601263,341
Bath and North East SomersetWestmoreland3,977LIBLIB9466321,260314301463,058
Bath and North East SomersetWeston4,756LIBLIB1,3205411,528305101863,656
Bath and North East SomersetWidcombe and Lyncombe5,486LIBLIB1,3526082,006255901694,219
 Total67,806LIBLIB15,43010,68822,64541973202,22652,140

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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