Bedford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bedford: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Mohammad Yasin  (LAB)
County/Area: Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,579
Turnout: 66.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB20,49143.3%47.4%
CON20,34643.0%41.7%
LIB4,6089.7%4.9%
Green9602.0%2.8%
Brexit8961.9%1.2%
OTH00.0%1.9%
LAB Majority1450.3%Pred Maj 5.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
63%
CON
37%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Bedford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bedford constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right9° Right
National Position1° Glo7° Nat
Social Position2° Con3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %52%56%52%
British Identity33%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born77%89%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job47%52%51%
High SEC46%53%51%
Average Age47.049.348.3
ABC1 Class50%55%54%

Bedford ranks #357 for "Leave", #310 for "Right", #417 for "National" and #313 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bedford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bedford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bedford.

BedfordActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordBrickhill6,311CONCON2,0001,5073385714901184,169
BedfordCastle5,226LABLAB1,3631,744123321410523,455
BedfordCauldwell5,774LABLAB1,3052,21211342920523,816
BedfordClapham14CONCON63000009
BedfordDe Parys4,617CONCON1,4631,11425738890893,050
BedfordElstow and Stewartby67CONCON21184100145
BedfordGoldington5,493LABLAB1,4211,7151961031110843,630
BedfordGreat Barford516CONCON22385144906341
BedfordHarpur5,503LABLAB1,2702,04115035800603,636
BedfordKempston Central and East5,037LABLAB1,3441,7609436510443,329
BedfordKempston North2,868LABLAB8259315116490231,895
BedfordKempston Rural809CONCON33514027616010534
BedfordKempston South3,088LABLAB6861,2315021280252,041
BedfordKempston West3,728LABLAB1,0441,2566727370322,463
BedfordKingsbrook5,810LABLAB1,4761,919203501140783,840
BedfordNewnham5,394CONCON1,7891,237264401420933,565
BedfordPutnoe5,901CONCON2,0501,2782955511801053,901
BedfordQueens Park5,423LABLAB1,1272,2486922840363,586
 Total71,579LABLAB19,74822,4392,3155851,310090847,305

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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