Bedfordshire Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bedfordshire Mid: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Nadine Dorries  (CON)
County/Area: Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 87,795
Turnout: 73.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON38,69259.8%58.5%
LAB14,02821.7%26.3%
LIB8,17112.6%6.3%
Green2,4783.8%4.7%
OTH1,3482.1%4.2%
CON Majority24,66438.1%Pred Maj 32.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bedfordshire Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bedfordshire Mid constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right9° Right
National Position6° Nat7° Nat
Social Position2° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%56%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born92%89%87%
Good Education44%37%39%
Good Job60%52%51%
High SEC62%53%51%
Average Age49.449.348.3
ABC1 Class64%55%54%

Bedfordshire Mid ranks #334 for "Leave", #47 for "Right", #265 for "National" and #306 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bedfordshire Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bedfordshire Mid

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bedfordshire Mid.

Bedfordshire MidActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordElstow and Stewartby3,764CONCON1,31978344009701352,774
BedfordKempston Rural2,233CONCON89538619301040681,646
BedfordWilshamstead3,981CONCON1,8937031660850882,935
BedfordWootton4,852CONCON2,199841288011801313,577
Central BedfordshireAmpthill10,548CONCON4,5261,802509059103497,777
Central BedfordshireArlesey5,717CONCON2,4071,248187026201124,216
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn3,819CONCON1,82461114509901362,815
Central BedfordshireBarton-le-Clay3,995CONCON1,721722227011001652,945
Central BedfordshireCranfield and Marston Moretaine11,054CONCON4,5922,367365052103048,149
Central BedfordshireFlitwick10,642CONCON4,0912,401671028903927,844
Central BedfordshireHoughton Conquest and Haynes2,601CONCON1,189480930630921,917
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,190CONCON61218832025021878
Central BedfordshireShefford7,792CONCON3,5231,637237017201755,744
Central BedfordshireSilsoe and Shillington4,322CONCON2,019729169011701533,187
Central BedfordshireToddington7,538CONCON3,1341,629281019003245,558
Central BedfordshireWestoning, Flitton and Greenfield3,747CONCON1,93147310001730852,762
 Total87,795CONCON37,87517,0004,10303,01602,73064,724

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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