Bedfordshire Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bedfordshire Mid: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Nadine Dorries  (CON)
County/Area: Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 87,795
Turnout: 73.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON38,69259.8%58.4%
LAB14,02821.7%23.1%
LIB8,17112.6%13.7%
Green2,4783.8%3.5%
OTH1,3482.1%1.4%
CON Majority24,66438.1%Pred Maj 35.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bedfordshire Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bedfordshire Mid constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right9° Right
National Position6° Nat7° Nat
Social Position2° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%56%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education44%37%39%
Good Job60%53%51%
High SEC62%53%51%
Average Age49.449.448.5
ABC1 Class64%55%54%

Bedfordshire Mid ranks #334 for "Leave", #47 for "Right", #265 for "National" and #306 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bedfordshire Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Bedfordshire Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bedfordshire Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bedfordshire Mid at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bedfordshire Mid. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bedfordshire MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
BedfordElstow and Stewartby201556535594100148
BedfordKempston Rural20152,074540343000
BedfordWilshamstead20151,698383252000
BedfordWootton20151,1192665255601380
Central BedfordshireAmpthill201510,5731,465001,7392,378
Central BedfordshireArlesey201510,9753,56301,93901,532
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn20152,0120007350
Central BedfordshireBarton-le-Clay2015759275417001,518
Central BedfordshireCranfield and Marston Moretaine20159,1233,45701,9588310
Central BedfordshireFlitwick20159,5473,09902,8901,3440
Central BedfordshireHoughton Conquest and Haynes20151,137299000247
Central BedfordshireNorthill2015932255033100
Central BedfordshireShefford20155,3641,17601,96600
Central BedfordshireSilsoe and Shillington20151,2763620001,394
Central BedfordshireToddington20154,0079771,5871,15401,534
Central BedfordshireWestoning, Flitton and Greenfield20151,859005104650

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bedfordshire MidEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordElstow and Stewartby3,4581,3616903480930562,548
BedfordKempston Rural2,4331,0773502640660361,793
BedfordWilshamstead2,8821,3034442650710402,123
BedfordWootton3,6271,57455738301060542,674
Central BedfordshireAmpthill10,4134,5951,5541,024033001737,676
Central BedfordshireArlesey5,8632,61798148301480924,321
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn4,0511,88652938801250582,986
Central BedfordshireBarton-le-Clay4,3791,86868048701180753,228
Central BedfordshireCranfield and Marston Moretaine10,8394,5552,049918031601517,989
Central BedfordshireFlitwick11,6045,0272,030976035301688,554
Central BedfordshireHoughton Conquest and Haynes2,3951,1153422080600401,765
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,340649178109033019988
Central BedfordshireShefford8,2423,8321,245673020901166,075
Central BedfordshireSilsoe and Shillington3,6811,6535493500990622,713
Central BedfordshireToddington8,4433,6271,300925022701456,224
Central BedfordshireWestoning, Flitton and Greenfield4,1441,95154936901240613,054
 Total87,79438,69014,0278,17002,47801,34664,711

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bedfordshire Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bedfordshire Mid.

Bedfordshire MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordElstow and Stewartby3,4581,3247273750850362,547
BedfordKempston Rural2,4331,0513762830600231,793
BedfordWilshamstead2,8821,2724732870650262,123
BedfordWootton3,6271,5365964110960352,674
Central BedfordshireAmpthill10,4134,4851,6701,109030001137,677
Central BedfordshireArlesey5,8632,5551,04352801350604,321
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn4,0511,84357241901140382,986
Central BedfordshireBarton-le-Clay4,3791,82272852201070493,228
Central BedfordshireCranfield and Marston Moretaine10,8394,4402,1621,00102870987,988
Central BedfordshireFlitwick11,6044,9042,1541,066032101098,554
Central BedfordshireHoughton Conquest and Haynes2,3951,0903682270550261,766
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,340635192119030012988
Central BedfordshireShefford8,2423,7451,33073501900766,076
Central BedfordshireSilsoe and Shillington3,6811,6145893790900402,712
Central BedfordshireToddington8,4433,5381,39399302060946,224
Central BedfordshireWestoning, Flitton and Greenfield4,1441,90759340101130403,054
 Total87,79437,76114,9668,85502,254087564,711

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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