Belfast East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast East: Overview

 Prediction: Alliance gain from DUP 

MP at 2017: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 63,495
Turnout: 67.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP23,91755.8%44.4%
Alliance15,44336.0%46.2%
UUP1,4083.3%9.4%
SF8942.1%0.0%
Green5611.3%0.0%
OTH5001.2%0.0%
SDLP1670.4%0.0%
LIB Majority8,47419.8%Pred Maj 1.8%
Chance of
winning
DUP
47%
Alliance
53%
UUP
0%
SF
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%

Belfast East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerDUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health45%48%48%
UK Born93%93%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job56%47%51%
High SEC60%57%51%
Average Age48.547.248.4
ABC1 Class54%45%53%

Belfast East ranks #371 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Belfast East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast East. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett2014230403061098504392
BelfastBeersbridge2014268051628035172600
BelfastBelmont2014379104945141210326
BelfastBloomfield20142932245934258107465
BelfastConnswater20143121046328944109425
BelfastCregagh20141657056637661159305
BelfastGarnerville201439545044971170344
BelfastGilnahirk201435205664329216460
BelfastHillfoot2014366866843635678152
BelfastKnock2014307524016681720339
BelfastMerok2014276187432933756338
BelfastOrangefield2014255437394336931333
BelfastSandown201429704933918323417
BelfastShandon2014399154048110817390
BelfastStormont2014393284535591390300
BelfastSydenham2014308046721224103401
BelfastWoodstock20142402737126643161419
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood20141070469147750184
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh20141020626181920307
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald20141040518145770224
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2014750564101610333
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2014420502136720319

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,76197231,42683361230332,541
BelfastBeersbridge4,43011331,682985261440392,992
BelfastBelmont3,3477581,1001,00536110262,261
BelfastBloomfield4,13597231,4661,012401230332,794
BelfastConnswater3,91396121,438911321220332,644
BelfastCregagh1,56133855938515420111,053
BelfastGarnerville3,1597231,05793134110252,133
BelfastGilnahirk3,4818521,23494640150292,351
BelfastHillfoot1,4303075583211228010966
BelfastKnock3,52072171,0611,15834110252,378
BelfastMerok3,01065141,28958217440222,033
BelfastOrangefield3,25568161,25877831230232,197
BelfastSandown3,0927421,08684535210252,088
BelfastShandon3,5168321,2061,00139150282,374
BelfastStormont3,39874171,0841,04835110252,294
BelfastSydenham3,5839021,382782181150312,420
BelfastWoodstock48101811010031
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,9144018743401960141,294
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,5544611,1754512680191,726
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,0824319543662060151,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,2153311,0363802270161,495
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,0902019763692270161,411
 Total63,4941,40716423,91915,440559894049842,881

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast East.

Belfast EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Alliance
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,76127101,1440001,127002,542
BelfastBeersbridge4,43031601,3500001,329002,995
BelfastBelmont3,34720308390001,219002,261
BelfastBloomfield4,13529201,1580001,343002,793
BelfastConnswater3,91327801,1450001,219002,642
BelfastCregagh1,5611050443000507001,055
BelfastGarnerville3,15919308110001,132002,136
BelfastGilnahirk3,48121909630001,170002,352
BelfastHillfoot1,43092045000042600968
BelfastKnock3,52020807860001,384002,378
BelfastMerok3,01018801,057000788002,033
BelfastOrangefield3,25519801,007000995002,200
BelfastSandown3,09219508460001,047002,088
BelfastShandon3,51621709320001,225002,374
BelfastStormont3,39820608200001,269002,295
BelfastSydenham3,58325101,1120001,056002,419
BelfastWoodstock483015000150033
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,9141120723000459001,294
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,5541420974000610001,726
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,0821210791000495001,407
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,2151150863000518001,496
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090990813000500001,412
 Total63,4944,024019,04200019,8330042,899

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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