Belfast East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast East: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 66,245
Turnout: 64.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP20,87449.2%49.2%
Alliance19,05544.9%44.9%
UUP2,5165.9%5.9%
DUP Majority1,8194.3%Pred Maj 4.3%
Chance of
winning
DUP
63%
Alliance
37%
UUP
0%

Belfast East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health45%48%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job56%47%51%
High SEC60%57%51%
Average Age48.547.248.3
ABC1 Class54%46%53%

Belfast East ranks #371 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast East.

Belfast EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,684DUPDUP14601,1341,08000002,360
BelfastBeersbridge3,938DUPDUP15201,2171,15400002,523
BelfastBelmont3,569AllianceAlliance13601,0041,14600002,286
BelfastBloomfield3,812AllianceAlliance16601,0751,20200002,443
BelfastConnswater3,838DUPDUP18901,1471,12300002,459
BelfastCregagh1,625DUPDUP48055344000001,041
BelfastGarnerville3,279AllianceAlliance12809141,06000002,102
BelfastGilnahirk3,651DUPDUP14301,1381,05800002,339
BelfastHillfoot1,485DUPDUP7005333490000952
BelfastKnock3,800AllianceAlliance13908571,43900002,435
BelfastMerok3,090DUPDUP12601,15469900001,979
BelfastOrangefield3,490DUPDUP13201,22488100002,237
BelfastSandown3,226DUPDUP12601,00693500002,067
BelfastShandon3,862AllianceAlliance15101,1381,18500002,474
BelfastStormont3,725AllianceAlliance14509381,30300002,386
BelfastSydenham3,543DUPDUP17801,16392900002,270
BelfastWoodstock65SDLPAlliance301821000042
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood2,345DUPDUP73084059000001,503
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh3,557DUPDUP9801,30887200002,278
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,340DUPDUP70085957100001,500
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,150DUPDUP53083848700001,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,169DUPDUP46081553000001,391
 Total66,243DUPDUP2,518020,87319,054000042,445

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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