Belfast West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast West: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 65,644
Turnout: 59.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF20,86653.8%53.9%
MIN6,19416.0%16.0%
DUP5,22013.5%13.5%
SDLP2,9857.7%7.8%
Alliance1,8824.9%4.9%
OTH1,6354.2%3.9%
UUP00.0%0.1%
SF Majority14,67237.8%Pred Maj 37.9%
Chance of
winning
SF
99%
MIN
0%
DUP
1%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
UUP
0%

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %26%44%52%
British Identity18%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education26%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age45.647.248.3
ABC1 Class35%46%53%

Belfast West ranks #631 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast West.

Belfast WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,695SFSF11531678801,394303752,181
BelfastBallygomartin4,076DUPDUP27492013406964681152,409
BelfastBallymurphy3,570SFSF2641597101,351370912,108
BelfastBeechmount3,598SFSF11071629201,356325802,123
BelfastCentral329SDLPSF0224133057338194
BelfastClonard3,929SFSF22014478101,0394421092,321
BelfastCollin Glen4,046SFSF21231838101,533376922,390
BelfastDunmurry2,949SFSF12731972840819137341,745
BelfastFalls3,395SFSF21524027008774041002,007
BelfastFalls Park3,714SFSF11861669201,405276682,194
BelfastForth River2,610DUPDUP145571730430337831,540
BelfastLadybrook3,715SFSF129717016701,233261642,193
BelfastLagmore4,878SFSF236022212401,678400992,885
BelfastPoleglass3,897SFSF22191787901,348383942,303
BelfastShankill2,330DUPDUP140505720380303751,376
BelfastShaw's Road3,994SFSF11381808001,521352872,359
BelfastStewartstown3,606SFSF12671648401,246294732,129
BelfastTurf Lodge3,431SFSF2591536801,294361892,026
BelfastTwinbrook3,389SFSF12131549001,152313772,000
BelfastWoodvale405DUPDUP0786160645313239
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford89DUPDUP062080153153
 Total65,645SFSF263,0065,2471,887020,8886,1941,52738,775

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc1920)