Belfast West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast West: Overview

 Predicted winner: SF 
 Acual winner: SF 

MP at 2019: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 65,644
Turnout: 59.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF20,86653.8%60.7%
MIN6,19416.0%8.2%
DUP5,22013.5%8.3%
SDLP2,9857.7%9.5%
Alliance1,8824.9%6.7%
OTH1,6354.2%6.6%
SF Majority14,67237.8%Pred Maj 51.2%
Chance of
winning
SF
100%
MIN
0%
DUP
0%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %26%44%52%
British Identity18%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education26%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age45.647.248.4
ABC1 Class35%45%53%

Belfast West ranks #631 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Belfast West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown2014022102301,230340
BelfastBallygomartin201422011882380234688
BelfastBallymurphy201401400001,351467
BelfastBeechmount2014020803201,469497
BelfastCentral201483386227326173608550
BelfastClonard2014429721410977536
BelfastCollin Glen2014022401401,513475
BelfastDunmurry20142172860207099294
BelfastFalls2014323020510855535
BelfastFalls Park2014025102901,241302
BelfastForth River201412515658210264609
BelfastLadybrook201410224707801,081133
BelfastLagmore20145936305201,734259
BelfastPoleglass20142823202301,439296
BelfastShankill20141835901230241787
BelfastShaw's Road2014021201101,351401
BelfastStewartstown20144624903001,183163
BelfastTurf Lodge201401340001,326477
BelfastTwinbrook20142420203401,094213
BelfastWoodvale20141165712450186677

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,29901551969001,139292771,949
BelfastBallygomartin4,087011076612508014851272,414
BelfastBallymurphy3,56101202069601,236359872,104
BelfastBeechmount4,012016023811401,365395992,371
BelfastCentral186013158045246111
BelfastClonard4,003024032811901,0604931252,365
BelfastCollin Glen4,047016823810601,405377962,390
BelfastDunmurry2,95801971811090986207671,747
BelfastFalls3,608019831110809404601142,131
BelfastFalls Park3,31601691959201,147280751,958
BelfastForth River2,561068483750504305791,514
BelfastLadybrook3,558020420712101,238255772,102
BelfastLagmore5,351028730414901,9183911123,161
BelfastPoleglass4,378019624811401,586349942,587
BelfastShankill2,255060426650444268701,333
BelfastShaw's Road3,59201542129301,256325832,123
BelfastStewartstown3,62901962069801,312258752,145
BelfastTurf Lodge3,52401162049501,213366872,081
BelfastTwinbrook3,39901661969601,207268752,008
BelfastWoodvale3220960100633810190
 Total65,64602,9865,2201,883020,8656,1951,63538,784

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast West.

Belfast WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,2990200121001,3421591281,950
BelfastBallygomartin4,0870189581001,1612652172,413
BelfastBallymurphy3,5610171127001,4661961452,105
BelfastBeechmount4,0120218147001,6272151652,372
BelfastCentral186017900611410111
BelfastClonard4,0030309203001,3732782032,366
BelfastCollin Glen4,0470223147001,6562051592,390
BelfastDunmurry2,9580238112001,1711131131,747
BelfastFalls3,6080261192001,2262661862,131
BelfastFalls Park3,3160213120001,3471531251,958
BelfastForth River2,5610117367007281671351,514
BelfastLadybrook3,5580251128001,4531391312,102
BelfastLagmore5,3510353188002,2192131873,160
BelfastPoleglass4,3780251153001,8361901572,587
BelfastShankill2,2550103324006401471191,333
BelfastShaw's Road3,5920202131001,4751771382,123
BelfastStewartstown3,6290240127001,5121411252,145
BelfastTurf Lodge3,5240167126001,4441991452,081
BelfastTwinbrook3,3990210121001,4061461252,008
BelfastWoodvale3220154500912117189
 Total65,64603,9483,4690025,2343,4042,73038,785

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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