Belfast West: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Belfast West, or click here to find another new seat.

Belfast West: Overview

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:65,644
Turnout:59.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF20,86653.8%53.9%
MIN6,19416.0%16.0%
DUP5,22013.5%13.5%
SDLP2,9857.7%7.8%
Alliance1,8824.9%4.9%
OTH1,6354.2%3.9%
UUP00.0%0.1%
SF Majority14,67237.8%37.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SF
99%
MIN
0%
DUP
1%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
UUP
0%

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %26%44%52%
British Identity14%32%52%
Average Age47.749.349.5
Good Education39%48%49%
Employed49%56%58%
Homeowner54%69%63%
Car owner70%87%77%
Married30%46%45%
Ethnic White96%97%83%
Christian89%81%50%
ABC1 Class36%46%55%
Average House Price£121,092£148,218£309,210

Belfast West ranks #631 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast West.

Belfast WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,687SFSF11531658801,392303752,177
BelfastBallygomartin4,093DUPDUP27492213506994711162,419
BelfastBallymurphy3,584SFSF2651587101,357372922,117
BelfastBeechmount3,555SFSF11061609101,340322792,099
BelfastCentral239SDLPSF0163024041246141
BelfastClonard3,910SFSF22014438101,0354411082,311
BelfastCollin Glen4,065SFSF21231828201,540378932,400
BelfastDunmurry2,890SFSF12682022840801121301,707
BelfastFalls3,330SFSF2149393690860397981,968
BelfastFalls Park3,665SFSF11841659301,386269662,164
BelfastForth River2,624DUPDUP146573740432340841,550
BelfastLadybrook3,654SFSF129416916701,213252622,158
BelfastLagmore4,975SFSF236822412601,7114091012,941
BelfastPoleglass3,930SFSF22211777901,359387952,320
BelfastShankill2,439DUPDUP142528750397318781,439
BelfastShaw's Road3,959SFSF11371777901,508350862,338
BelfastStewartstown3,611SFSF12691628501,248295732,133
BelfastTurf Lodge3,492SFSF2611546901,317369912,063
BelfastTwinbrook3,429SFSF12161559101,166317782,024
BelfastWoodvale433DUPDUP0791170695714255
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford81DUPDUP051870143148
 Total65,645SFSF263,0055,2481,887020,8856,1951,52638,772

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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