Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Overview

 Prediction: SNP gain from CON 

MP at 2019: John Lamont  (CON)
County/Area: Borders (Scotland)
Electorate: 74,518
Turnout: 71.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,74748.4%43.8%
SNP20,59938.8%44.8%
LIB4,2878.1%4.5%
LAB2,5134.7%5.2%
Green00.0%1.0%
OTH00.0%0.7%
CON Majority5,1489.7%Pred Maj 0.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
50%
SNP
50%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position7° Left23° Left
National Position5° Glo15° Glo
Social Position6° Lib13° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %43%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC56%55%51%
Average Age52.248.648.3
ABC1 Class44%50%54%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk ranks #513 for "Leave", #453 for "Right", #478 for "National" and #528 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire8,752CONCON3,0373652270572,5130436,242
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District10,869SNPSNP2,4856033540774,1740587,751
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm7,099SNPSNP1,8843972130492,4820375,062
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage6,933CONSNP2,0343091800452,3440344,946
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District7,040CONCON2,6111701440422,0220325,021
Scottish BordersKelso and District8,266CONCON2,8112053680682,3910525,895
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose8,608CONSNP2,7181733830712,7400546,139
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire8,436CONCON2,9892172920622,4080476,015
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire7,647CONCON2,4802971790482,4140365,454
Scottish BordersTweeddale East868CONSNP24416390730705618
 Total74,518CONSNP23,2932,7522,379052623,795039853,143

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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