Bexhill and Battle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bexhill and Battle: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Huw Merriman  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 81,968
Turnout: 72.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,59063.6%62.3%
LAB11,53119.5%24.4%
LIB7,28012.3%5.5%
Green2,6924.6%5.4%
OTH00.0%2.3%
CON Majority26,05944.1%Pred Maj 38.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bexhill and Battle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bexhill and Battle constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right11° Right
National Position14° Nat3° Nat
Social Position7° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health43%49%48%
UK Born94%88%87%
Good Education38%43%39%
Good Job53%56%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age55.449.148.3
ABC1 Class56%60%54%

Bexhill and Battle ranks #204 for "Leave", #113 for "Right", #61 for "National" and #75 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bexhill and Battle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bexhill and Battle

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bexhill and Battle.

Bexhill and BattleActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RotherBexhill Central3,982CONCON1,3441,26110501130492,872
RotherBexhill Collington3,968CONCON1,92855111402150522,860
RotherBexhill Kewhurst4,014CONCON1,99161012801070582,894
RotherBexhill Old Town and Worsham3,150CONCON1,30057614201920612,271
RotherBexhill Pebsham and St Michaels3,929CONCON1,84070712201080552,832
RotherBexhill Sackville4,019CONCON1,82676713101150592,898
RotherBexhill Sidley4,038CONCON1,4221,265870940422,910
RotherBexhill St Marks3,728CONCON1,9325091020970472,687
RotherBexhill St Stephens4,018CONCON1,64574318602440792,897
RotherBurwash and the Weald3,660CONCON1,65152119901850832,639
RotherCatsfield and Crowhurst1,868CONCON80328610601090441,348
RotherEastern Rother1,261CONCON59621645033020910
RotherHurst Green and Ticehurst4,079CONCON1,93355917202030742,941
RotherNorth Battle, Netherfield and Whatlington3,689CONCON1,47662434001250952,660
RotherNorthern Rother3,999CONCON1,9586191440990632,883
RotherRobertsbridge2,077CONCON8453481870640531,497
RotherSedlescombe and Westfield1,236CONCON60420931033015892
RotherSouth Battle and Telham1,713CONCON6793151450510441,234
WealdenFramfield and Cross-in-Hand1,011CONCON52711722053011730
WealdenHeathfield North3,135CONCON1,3745721610850672,259
WealdenHeathfield South3,038CONCON1,410602680770332,190
WealdenHellingly182CONCON902950502131
WealdenHerstmonceux and Pevensey Levels5,554CONCON2,48086822703310984,004
WealdenHoram and Punnetts Town3,429CONCON1,6804858001890382,472
WealdenMayfield and Five Ashes570CONCON288701503107411
WealdenPevensey Bay2,499CONCON1,1574311020680441,802
WealdenPolegate Central1,322CONCON69217736032017954
WealdenStone Cross2,796CONCON1,3703817301560342,014
 Total81,964CONCON36,84114,4183,27503,21401,34459,092

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc617)