Brighton Pavilion: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Brighton Pavilion: Overview

 Prediction: Green hold 

MP at 2019: Caroline Lucas  (Green)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 79,057
Turnout: 73.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Green33,15157.2%57.3%
LAB13,21122.8%23.7%
CON10,17617.5%16.4%
Brexit7701.3%0.9%
OTH6901.2%1.6%
Green Majority19,94034.4%Pred Maj 33.6%
Chance of
winning
Green
97%
LAB
3%
CON
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Brighton Pavilion : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Brighton Pavilion constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019GreenCONCON
Party Winner 2017GreenCONCON
Party Winner 2015GreenCONCON
Economic Position19° Left11° Right
National Position41° Glo3° Nat
Social Position33° Lib1° Con
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %16%52%52%
British Identity34%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born84%88%87%
Good Education60%43%39%
Good Job63%56%51%
High SEC58%57%51%
Average Age41.749.148.3
ABC1 Class70%60%54%

Brighton Pavilion ranks #649 for "Leave", #587 for "Right", #649 for "National" and #650 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brighton Pavilion: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Brighton Pavilion

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Brighton Pavilion.

Brighton PavilionActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Brighton and HoveHanover and Elm Grove12,608GreenGreen8362,6090705,49702379,249
Brighton and HoveHollingdean and Stanmer12,081GreenGreen1,1443,04701604,36701458,863
Brighton and HovePatcham11,158GreenGreen2,9121,5010803,58401088,185
Brighton and HovePreston Park11,331GreenGreen8402,0550505,26501048,314
Brighton and HoveRegency7,304GreenGreen6611,1180323,4890585,358
Brighton and HoveSt Peter's and North Laine13,479GreenGreen8952,1790606,55801989,890
Brighton and HoveWithdean11,096GreenGreen2,2451,2570494,4910988,140
 Total79,057GreenGreen9,53313,766050133,251094857,999

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc721)