Bromsgrove: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bromsgrove: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Sajid Javid  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 75,079
Turnout: 72.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,40863.4%62.1%
LAB11,30220.8%24.8%
LIB6,77912.5%7.2%
Green1,7833.3%4.0%
OTH00.0%1.9%
CON Majority23,10642.6%Pred Maj 37.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bromsgrove : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bromsgrove constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right3° Right
National Position8° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %55%59%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born96%89%87%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job60%48%51%
High SEC62%46%51%
Average Age51.748.648.3
ABC1 Class63%49%54%

Bromsgrove ranks #283 for "Leave", #90 for "Right", #185 for "National" and #179 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bromsgrove: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bromsgrove

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bromsgrove.

BromsgroveActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BromsgroveAlvechurch South2,325CONCON1,1982911030600301,682
BromsgroveAlvechurch Village2,275CONCON1,1073381070620301,644
BromsgroveAston Fields2,540CONCON1,0036391010640301,837
BromsgroveAvoncroft2,603CONCON1,1024861770680471,880
BromsgroveBarnt Green and Hopwood2,435CONCON1,2552951120660321,760
BromsgroveBelbroughton and Romsley5,343CONCON2,89464816001100513,863
BromsgroveBromsgrove Central2,375CONCON9153773080670501,717
BromsgroveCatshill North2,197CONCON878558780510241,589
BromsgroveCatshill South2,221CONCON1,0023659101190271,604
BromsgroveCharford2,288CONCON772723850490251,654
BromsgroveCofton2,400CONCON1,06433413001720361,736
BromsgroveDrakes Cross2,485CONCON1,269345920610281,795
BromsgroveHagley East2,438CONCON1,2652921070670311,762
BromsgroveHagley West2,925CONCON1,5343381280770372,114
BromsgroveHill Top1,844CONCON681508750470221,333
BromsgroveHollywood2,401CONCON1,279300830500251,737
BromsgroveLickey Hills2,295CONCON1,0322692480630481,660
BromsgroveLowes Hill2,567CONCON9605771950720511,855
BromsgroveMarlbrook2,425CONCON1,1663398101420251,753
BromsgroveNorton2,457CONCON1,0073413110660511,776
BromsgrovePerryfields1,506CONCON662330470360151,090
BromsgroveRock Hill2,398CONCON8117171120620321,734
BromsgroveRubery North2,440CONCON918673890580271,765
BromsgroveRubery South2,510CONCON9636128701260261,814
BromsgroveSanders Park2,743CONCON1,083714950610291,982
BromsgroveSidemoor2,686CONCON8817471930690511,941
BromsgroveSlideslow2,689CONCON1,2564001720700461,944
BromsgroveTardebigge2,395CONCON1,225330990490291,732
BromsgroveWythall East2,512CONCON1,3173021070600311,817
BromsgroveWythall West2,361CONCON1,2142941130530321,706
 Total75,079CONCON33,71313,4823,88602,17701,01854,276

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (13-Aug-2020 10:51, Py3L, sc1863)