Calder Valley: Seat Details

Calder Valley: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Craig Whittaker  (CON)
County/Area:West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:79,287
Turnout:72.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON29,98151.9%44.1%
LAB24,20741.9%45.8%
LIB2,8845.0%3.8%
OTH7211.2%3.4%
Green00.0%2.9%
CON Majority5,77410.0%1.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
45%
LAB
55%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Calder Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Calder Valley constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Yorks/HumberAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position2° Right3° Left
National Position1° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %52%58%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born96%91%87%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job56%47%51%
High SEC55%46%51%
Average Age50.148.348.3
ABC1 Class57%49%54%
Average House Price£199,331£199,953£309,875

Calder Valley ranks #364 for "Leave", #321 for "Right", #369 for "National" and #438 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Calder Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Calder Valley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Calder Valley.

Calder ValleyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CalderdaleBrighouse8,464CONCON3,3542,282119016902456,169
CalderdaleCalder9,337LABLAB2,1053,889408021601866,804
CalderdaleElland8,776CONLAB2,5873,214226018601846,397
CalderdaleGreetland and Stainland8,553CONCON2,9082,599332019302036,235
CalderdaleHipperholme and Lightcliffe9,206CONCON3,7602,379187019001936,709
CalderdaleLuddendenfoot8,164LABLAB2,2173,094275018001855,951
CalderdaleRastrick8,478CONCON3,0202,587176017502246,182
CalderdaleRyburn9,092CONCON3,2242,759168018602916,628
CalderdaleTodmorden9,216LABLAB2,2893,692282020002556,718
 Total79,286CONLAB25,46426,4952,17301,69501,96657,793

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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