Camborne and Redruth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Camborne and Redruth: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: George Eustice  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 70,250
Turnout: 71.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,76453.1%50.2%
LAB18,06435.9%31.8%
LIB3,5047.0%13.4%
Green1,3592.7%3.3%
OTH6761.3%1.2%
CON Majority8,70017.3%Pred Maj 18.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
79%
LAB
20%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Camborne and Redruth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Camborne and Redruth constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right8° Right
National Position8° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education36%40%39%
Good Job43%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age51.050.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%54%

Camborne and Redruth ranks #211 for "Leave", #323 for "Right", #183 for "National" and #340 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Camborne and Redruth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Camborne and Redruth: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Camborne and Redruth

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Camborne and Redruth at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Camborne and Redruth. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Camborne and RedruthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves201331920003400211
CornwallCamborne Roskear20134754350237068
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren2013243197022534104
CornwallCamborne Treslothan20131361786117158297
CornwallCamborne Treswithian201321622002320204
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day201301110234131791
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock2013856203043400
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2013290100000978
CornwallFour Lanes201317316902390258
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth20134141186131142431
CornwallHayle North2013011802600716
CornwallHayle South2013018103280617
CornwallIllogan20133311131572590290
CornwallLanner and Stithians2013085014001,101
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias20134101293314130160
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath2013012380828100
CornwallPool and Tehidy2013244344024200
CornwallRedruth Central2013257160022100
CornwallRedruth North2013036502660443
CornwallRedruth South2013031101730342
CornwallSt Agnes2013398147613000
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage20136316903555020

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Camborne and RedruthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves3,0951,2437511420540292,219
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,8011,4391,0291590630352,725
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,5831,3199851480810362,569
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,5721,2529991800930372,561
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,1321,1668721300500282,246
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,5919796461390680261,858
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,8931,7397262190730362,793
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,9727844671070370191,414
CornwallFour Lanes3,6891,4249591650640332,645
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,6031,0426091350560241,866
CornwallHayle North3,9321,5081,0391700670362,820
CornwallHayle South3,4621,3299101540580312,482
CornwallIllogan3,8821,5329142250720392,782
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,9401,5449622080730382,825
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,5041,3238232430830402,512
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,7371,3908882720850432,678
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,4041,1841,0191450600322,440
CornwallRedruth Central3,1371,2997391350490272,249
CornwallRedruth North4,9591,6631,5622000850453,555
CornwallRedruth South3,3421,1999371660620322,396
CornwallSt Agnes4551711043501105326
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage5632351232901305405
 Total70,24826,76418,0633,50601,357067650,366

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Camborne and Redruth

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Camborne and Redruth.

Camborne and RedruthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves3,0951,1786622850680272,220
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,8011,3599193340800322,724
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,5831,2438823130970332,568
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,5721,17789634501090342,561
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,1321,1007822740640262,246
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,5919245712580800241,857
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,8931,6576143980910332,793
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,9727424101980460181,414
CornwallFour Lanes3,6891,3468533350810302,645
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,6039875342550680221,866
CornwallHayle North3,9321,4259253510850332,819
CornwallHayle South3,4621,2568103130740292,482
CornwallIllogan3,8821,4508024040900362,782
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,9401,4618483900910352,825
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,5041,2497224050990372,512
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,7371,31178044501020402,678
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,4041,1129213020760302,441
CornwallRedruth Central3,1371,2336482790630252,248
CornwallRedruth North4,9591,5581,41942801080423,555
CornwallRedruth South3,3421,1298413200770302,397
CornwallSt Agnes455161915601305326
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage5632231075501605406
 Total70,24825,28116,0376,74301,678062650,365

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc1128)