Cambridgeshire North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cambridgeshire North West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Shailesh Vara  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 94,909
Turnout: 68.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON40,30762.5%61.2%
LAB14,32422.2%26.2%
LIB6,88110.7%5.4%
Green3,0214.7%5.4%
OTH00.0%1.9%
CON Majority25,98340.3%Pred Maj 35.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cambridgeshire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cambridgeshire North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right9° Right
National Position10° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%56%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born89%89%87%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job54%52%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age47.949.348.3
ABC1 Class57%55%54%

Cambridgeshire North West ranks #191 for "Leave", #92 for "Right", #153 for "National" and #215 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cambridgeshire North West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cambridgeshire North West.

Cambridgeshire North WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury1,111CONCON50213352050018755
HuntingdonshireGreat Staughton458CONCON209532801109310
HuntingdonshireHemingford Grey and Houghton1,006CONCON45612060028020684
HuntingdonshireHolywell-cum-Needingworth5,468CONCON2,38885124101540823,716
HuntingdonshireKimbolton1,316CONCON68613828031011894
HuntingdonshireRamsey7,813CONCON3,6791,17019501940745,312
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,997CONCON2,27777915301330553,397
HuntingdonshireSomersham2,942CONCON1,2634771340800451,999
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East11CONCON52000007
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South35CONCON1362010123
HuntingdonshireStilton, Folksworth and Washingley5,186CONCON2,55069911101210443,525
HuntingdonshireWarboys5,652CONCON2,68085512801300503,843
HuntingdonshireYaxley8,206CONCON3,5221,57920901890795,578
PeterboroughBarnack2,689CONCON1,356325590640231,827
PeterboroughEast64LABLAB17212020143
PeterboroughFletton and Stanground6,252CONCON2,1151,276457026701364,251
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston5,982CONCON1,9531,51621103140744,068
PeterboroughGlinton and Castor4,879CONCON2,30554217802300623,317
PeterboroughHampton Vale4,276CONCON1,3611,01028001670902,908
PeterboroughHargate and Hempsted4,678CONCON1,60696030902070993,181
PeterboroughOrton Longueville6,474CONCON2,0821,72018403470684,401
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,754CONCON2,7761,05720704780754,593
PeterboroughStanground South6,201CONCON2,4411,30117302380644,217
PeterboroughWittering2,460CONCON1,246310490490201,674
 Total94,910CONCON39,48816,9003,45003,48501,20064,523

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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