Carlisle: Seat Details

Carlisle: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Julie Minns  (LAB)
County/Area:Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:77,863
Turnout:59.1%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB18,12939.4%39.4%
CON12,92928.1%28.1%
Reform9,29520.2%20.2%
LIB2,9826.5%6.5%
Green1,9224.2%4.2%
OTH7221.6%1.5%
LAB Majority5,20011.3%11.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Carlisle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Carlisle constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Economic Position4° Right4° Left
National Position10° Nat1° Nat
Social Position5° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %60%54%52%
Average Age51.349.749.5
Good Education45%49%49%
Employed58%55%58%
Homeowner69%64%63%
Car owner78%76%77%
Married44%43%45%
Ethnic White97%86%83%
Christian56%55%50%
ABC1 Class47%53%56%
Gross Household Income£36,666£38,646£42,397
Deprivation51%53%52%
Average House Price£160,683£200,217£313,528

Carlisle ranks #150 for "Leave", #299 for "Economic Right Position", #161 for "National Position" and #178 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Carlisle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Carlisle

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Carlisle.

CarlisleActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
CumberlandBelah5,050CONCON
CumberlandBelle Vue4,826LABLAB
CumberlandBotcherby4,765LABLAB
CumberlandBrampton4,639CONCON
CumberlandCastle4,189LABLAB
CumberlandCorby and Hayton4,110CONCON
CumberlandCurrock4,398LABLAB
CumberlandDalston and Burgh1,463CONCON
CumberlandDenton Holme4,749LABLAB
CumberlandHarraby North4,672LABLAB
CumberlandHarraby South4,409LABLAB
CumberlandHoughton and Irthington4,616CONCON
CumberlandLongtown4,072CONCON
CumberlandMorton4,611LABLAB
CumberlandStanwix Urban4,610CONCON
CumberlandUpperby4,576LABLAB
CumberlandWetheral3,376CONCON
CumberlandYewdale4,732LABLAB
 Total77,863LABLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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