Ceredigion Preseli: Seat Details

Ceredigion Preseli: Overview

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2024:Ben Lake  (Plaid)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:75,690
Turnout:61.2%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
Plaid21,73846.9%38.0%
LIB6,94915.0%12.1%
LAB5,38611.6%9.3%
Reform5,37411.6%19.4%
CON4,76310.3%14.0%
Green1,8644.0%5.2%
MIN2280.5%2.0%
Plaid Majority14,78931.9%18.7%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Plaid
90%
LIB
1%
LAB
0%
Reform
6%
CON
2%
Green
0%
MIN
0%

Ceredigion Preseli : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ceredigion Preseli constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2024PlaidLABLAB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Economic Position11° Left8° Left
National Position5° Glo
Social Position9° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %48%53%52%
Average Age53.151.149.6
Good Education55%49%51%
Employed50%53%57%
Homeowner70%67%64%
Car owner86%81%77%
Married44%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian51%47%48%
ABC1 Class52%52%56%
Gross Household Income£34,908£36,386£42,397
Deprivation53%54%52%
Average House Price£215,120£193,404£313,667

Ceredigion Preseli ranks #444 for "Leave", #517 for "Economic Right Position", #477 for "National Position" and #555 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ceredigion Preseli: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ceredigion Preseli

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Ceredigion Preseli. These are not local election results, which will be different.

Ceredigion PreseliActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
CeredigionAberaeron and Aberarth1,498LIBPlaid
CeredigionAberporth and Y Ferwig2,901PlaidPlaid
CeredigionAberystwyth Morfa a Glais3,770PlaidPlaid
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,260PlaidPlaid
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,801PlaidPlaid
CeredigionBeulah and Llangoedmor2,378PlaidPlaid
CeredigionBorth1,683PlaidPlaid
CeredigionCeulan and Maesmawr1,581PlaidPlaid
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,618PlaidPlaid
CeredigionFaenor1,692PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLampeter1,848PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlanarth1,210PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr1,715PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,501PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlandysilio and Llangrannog1,543PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlandysul North and Troedyraur1,790PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlandysul South1,536PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlanfarian1,223LIBPlaid
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,734PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlangeitho1,151PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlangybi1,205PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,345PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlansantffraid1,625PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLlanwenog1,485PlaidPlaid
CeredigionLledrod1,218PlaidPlaid
CeredigionMelindwr1,648PlaidPlaid
CeredigionMwldan1,579LIBPlaid
CeredigionNew Quay and Llanllwchaiarn1,651PlaidPlaid
CeredigionPenbryn1,141PlaidPlaid
CeredigionTeifi1,773PlaidPlaid
CeredigionTirymynach1,460PlaidPlaid
CeredigionTrefeurig1,437PlaidPlaid
CeredigionTregaron and Ystrad Fflur1,598PlaidPlaid
CeredigionYstwyth1,675LIBPlaid
PembrokeshireBoncath and Clydau1,660PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireBro Gwaun1,465PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireCilgerran and Eglwyswrw1,829PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireCrymych and Mynachlog-ddu1,937PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,532LABPlaid
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,229PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,524PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,625PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireMaenclochog1,758PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireNewport and Dinas1,606PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,843PlaidPlaid
PembrokeshireWiston421CONCON
 Total75,702PlaidPlaid

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (29-Apr-2025 17:03, Py3L, sc779)