Chippenham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chippenham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Michelle Donelan  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 77,225
Turnout: 73.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,99454.3%53.0%
LIB19,70634.5%23.4%
LAB6,39911.2%18.7%
Green00.0%1.4%
OTH00.0%3.5%
CON Majority11,28819.8%Pred Maj 29.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LIB
3%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Chippenham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chippenham constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right7° Right
National Position3° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born93%92%87%
Good Education42%41%39%
Good Job54%50%51%
High SEC57%52%51%
Average Age50.550.448.3
ABC1 Class58%54%54%

Chippenham ranks #415 for "Leave", #104 for "Right", #328 for "National" and #459 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chippenham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chippenham

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chippenham.

ChippenhamActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon North4,041CONCON1,3714671,00604001042,988
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon South4,159LIBCON1,2876251,01504201073,076
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,379CONCON1,5855032880340872,497
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands3,609CONCON1,5526033850360932,669
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish3,653CONCON1,2985876840370942,700
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England3,309CONCON1,1394767140330852,447
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden3,629CONCON1,1795827930360942,684
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,953CONCON1,1744234800300762,183
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,383CONCON1,2384576840340872,500
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon3,320CONCON1,3204815350330862,455
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick3,770CONCON1,3025807700380972,787
WiltshireCorsham Town3,887CONCON1,58551064003901002,874
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill2,536CONCON1,3102861880250651,874
WiltshireHilperton3,917CONCON1,71953949703901012,895
WiltshireHolt and Staverton3,496CONCON1,2293948360350902,584
WiltshireKington21CONCON1121000115
WiltshireMelksham Central3,802CONCON1,2676627460380982,811
WiltshireMelksham North3,846CONCON1,4025567480390992,844
WiltshireMelksham South4,040CONCON1,33653297404001042,986
WiltshireMelksham Without North4,589CONCON2,35050837004601183,392
WiltshireMelksham Without South4,112CONCON1,97952738604101063,039
WiltshireSummerham and Seend744CONCON3307611707019549
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood3,026CONCON1,3023055210300782,236
 Total77,221CONCON30,26510,68113,378077201,98957,085

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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