Chorley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Chorley: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Lindsay Hoyle  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 78,177
Turnout: 51.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB26,83167.3%67.3%
MIN9,43923.7%23.7%
Green3,6009.0%9.0%
LAB Majority17,39243.6%Pred Maj 43.6%
Chance of
winning
LAB
100%
MIN
0%
Green
0%

Chorley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Chorley constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left4° Left
National Position4° Nat1° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job53%49%51%
High SEC54%48%51%
Average Age49.448.548.3
ABC1 Class54%50%54%

Chorley ranks #249 for "Leave", #372 for "Right", #294 for "National" and #268 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chorley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Chorley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Chorley.

ChorleyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyAdlington and Anderton6,227LABLAB02,1630024776603,176
ChorleyBuckshaw and Whittle6,787LABLAB02,2270033190403,462
ChorleyChorley East6,076LABLAB02,2810020861003,099
ChorleyChorley North East5,616LABLAB01,9380024568102,864
ChorleyChorley North West5,890LABLAB01,8990041169303,003
ChorleyChorley North and Astley6,062LABLAB02,1620024668403,092
ChorleyChorley South East and Heath Charnock6,924LABLAB02,3140038083703,531
ChorleyChorley South West5,721LABLAB01,9130037562902,917
ChorleyClayton East, Brindle and Hoghton6,708LABLAB02,2620027488503,421
ChorleyClayton West and Cuerden6,585LABLAB02,2640028281203,358
ChorleyCoppull6,210LABLAB02,1900021576303,168
ChorleyCroston, Mawdesley and Euxton South1,183CONLAB040900521430604
ChorleyEccleston, Heskin and Charnock Richard2,245LABLAB0746009730101,144
ChorleyEuxton5,943LABLAB02,0620023973003,031
 Total78,177LABLAB026,830003,6029,438039,870

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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