Cities of London and Westminster: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cities of London and Westminster: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Nickie Aiken  (CON)
County/Area: City of Westminster (London)
Electorate: 63,700
Turnout: 67.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON17,04939.9%45.3%
LIB13,09630.7%22.3%
LAB11,62427.2%29.0%
Green7281.7%2.3%
OTH2260.5%1.0%
CON Majority3,9539.3%Pred Maj 16.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
73%
LIB
8%
LAB
19%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cities of London and Westminster : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cities of London and Westminster constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Left
National Position25° Glo15° Glo
Social Position9° Lib5° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %30%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health56%50%48%
UK Born48%64%88%
Good Education64%48%39%
Good Job81%61%51%
High SEC68%55%51%
Average Age42.944.148.5
ABC1 Class80%62%54%

Cities of London and Westminster ranks #614 for "Leave", #187 for "Right", #617 for "National" and #566 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cities of London and Westminster: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Cities of London and Westminster: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cities of London and Westminster

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cities of London and Westminster at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cities of London and Westminster. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cities of London and WestminsterActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate201437122016413169
City of LondonAldgate2014643000
City of LondonBassishaw2014111000
City of LondonBillingsgate2014321000
City of LondonBishopsgate2014241411111
City of LondonBread Street2014322000
City of LondonBridge2014954000
City of LondonBroad Street2014632000
City of LondonCandlewick2014322000
City of LondonCastle Baynard2014663929232
City of LondonCheap2014321000
City of LondonColeman Street2014000000
City of LondonCordwainer2014211000
City of LondonCornhill2014321000
City of LondonCripplegate2014538319239192314
City of LondonDowgate2014743000
City of LondonFarringdon Within20141257456453
City of LondonFarringdon Without20141267556453
City of LondonLangbourn2014111000
City of LondonLime Street2014000000
City of LondonPortsoken20141669874674
City of LondonQueenhithe2014694131232
City of LondonTower2014362216121
City of LondonVintry2014100000
City of LondonWalbrook2014110000
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square20143,4361,27452603810
City of WestminsterChurchill20143,0503,4543500308251
City of WestminsterHyde Park20143,1791,47902022610
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia20143,410467002280
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street20143,41993352903060
City of WestminsterSt James's20143,0041,6056252993350
City of WestminsterTachbrook20143,2911,5985632742680
City of WestminsterVincent Square20143,9252,2330327448279
City of WestminsterWarwick20143,9991,4185362652900
City of WestminsterWest End20142,8061,2812970309347

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cities of London and WestminsterEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,6744132364420230101,124
City of LondonAldgate28685000019
City of LondonBassishaw611200004
City of LondonBillingsgate14424000010
City of LondonBishopsgate109272123020073
City of LondonBread Street16425000011
City of LondonBridge419810000027
City of LondonBroad Street25656000017
City of LondonCandlewick16434000011
City of LondonCastle Baynard2977344760402199
City of LondonCheap14424000010
City of LondonColeman Street201000001
City of LondonCordwainer1031300007
City of LondonCornhill1342300009
City of LondonCripplegate2,4305864105890300141,629
City of LondonDowgate30866000020
City of LondonFarringdon Within566134961390803380
City of LondonFarringdon Without5701341021360802382
City of LondonLangbourn611200004
City of LondonLime Street100000000
City of LondonPortsoken7481572121250601501
City of LondonQueenhithe3157554760402211
City of LondonTower1643932360201110
City of LondonVintry311000002
City of LondonWalbrook512000003
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,9561,5911,0631,2500720193,995
City of WestminsterChurchill5,5881,2651,4759440520123,748
City of WestminsterHyde Park6,1371,5971,2421,1930670174,116
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia4,8601,6365151,0300590193,259
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,5241,5907811,2430690213,704
City of WestminsterSt James's6,2071,6571,1461,2650730224,163
City of WestminsterTachbrook5,0671,3969091,0240550163,400
City of WestminsterVincent Square6,1611,5941,2691,1830660204,132
City of WestminsterWarwick5,7191,5831,0041,1690620183,836
City of WestminsterWest End5,3761,4459711,0980650273,606
 Total63,69817,04811,62713,0950727022642,723

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cities of London and Westminster

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cities of London and Westminster.

Cities of London and WestminsterPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,6744732573490300161,125
City of LondonAldgate28783000018
City of LondonBassishaw611200004
City of LondonBillingsgate14523000010
City of LondonBishopsgate109312217020072
City of LondonBread Street16524000011
City of LondonBridge411088000026
City of LondonBroad Street25755000017
City of LondonCandlewick16533000011
City of LondonCastle Baynard2978448590503199
City of LondonCheap14523000010
City of LondonColeman Street201000001
City of LondonCordwainer1031200006
City of LondonCornhill1342200008
City of LondonCripplegate2,4306734404540400221,629
City of LondonDowgate30964000019
City of LondonFarringdon Within56615410310701005379
City of LondonFarringdon Without57015410910401004381
City of LondonLangbourn611200004
City of LondonLime Street100000000
City of LondonPortsoken748184221830903500
City of LondonQueenhithe3158658580503210
City of LondonTower1644534270302111
City of LondonVintry311000002
City of LondonWalbrook512000003
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,9561,8051,1369180970393,995
City of WestminsterChurchill5,5881,4661,5446330760303,749
City of WestminsterHyde Park6,1371,8171,3178510930374,115
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia4,8601,8105757590790353,258
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,5241,7888499350920393,703
City of WestminsterSt James's6,2071,8801,2229190990434,163
City of WestminsterTachbrook5,0671,5789717420760333,400
City of WestminsterVincent Square6,1611,8151,3458400920404,132
City of WestminsterWarwick5,7191,7881,0748500860373,835
City of WestminsterWest End5,3761,6381,0377990880453,607
 Total63,69819,33312,4079,5450992043642,713

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc3435)