Cities of London and Westminster: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cities of London and Westminster: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Nickie Aiken  (CON)
County/Area: City of Westminster (London)
Electorate: 63,700
Turnout: 67.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON17,04939.9%38.5%
LIB13,09630.7%20.0%
LAB11,62427.2%34.5%
Green7281.7%3.0%
OTH2260.5%3.9%
CON Majority3,9539.3%Pred Maj 4.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
60%
LIB
3%
LAB
37%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cities of London and Westminster : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cities of London and Westminster constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Left
National Position25° Glo16° Glo
Social Position9° Lib5° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %30%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health56%51%48%
UK Born48%63%87%
Good Education64%48%39%
Good Job81%61%51%
High SEC68%55%51%
Average Age42.943.948.3
ABC1 Class80%62%54%

Cities of London and Westminster ranks #614 for "Leave", #187 for "Right", #617 for "National" and #566 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cities of London and Westminster: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cities of London and Westminster

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cities of London and Westminster.

Cities of London and WestminsterActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,397LIBLIB266288300033049936
City of LondonAldgate37LIBLIB778000224
City of LondonBassishaw5LIBLIB11200004
City of LondonBillingsgate15LIBCON333000110
City of LondonBishopsgate113LIBLAB252620030478
City of LondonBread Street38LIBLIB778000325
City of LondonBridge40LIBLIB7611000327
City of LondonBroad Street14LIBCON33300009
City of LondonCandlewick14LIBCON33300009
City of LondonCastle Baynard255LIBCON5942560509171
City of LondonCheap12LIBLAB23300019
City of LondonColeman Street6LIBLIB11200004
City of LondonCordwainer11LIBLAB23200018
City of LondonCornhill9LIBCON21200005
City of LondonCripplegate2,007LIBLAB3554863940470651,347
City of LondonDowgate17LIBCON434000011
City of LondonFarringdon Within489LIBCON10393102011017326
City of LondonFarringdon Without428LIBCON93808809017287
City of LondonLangbourn6LIBLIB11200004
City of LondonLime Street2LIBLIB00100001
City of LondonPortsoken747LABLAB9128792011020501
City of LondonQueenhithe249LIBCON5644530508166
City of LondonTower172LIBCON3635340406115
City of LondonVintry4CONCON11100003
City of LondonWalbrook2LIBLIB00100001
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,962CONCON1,6101,260804016801584,000
City of WestminsterChurchill5,911LABLAB1,2391,83466007901543,966
City of WestminsterHyde Park6,211CONCON1,5911,490783015001514,165
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia3,848CONCON1,44153144104801172,578
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,184CONCON1,613888721011901373,478
City of WestminsterSt James's6,787CONCON1,8211,560856014501694,551
City of WestminsterTachbrook5,484CONCON1,4591,30669808301303,676
City of WestminsterVincent Square6,790CONLAB1,6341,710905014501604,554
City of WestminsterWarwick5,943CONCON1,6711,27080809301443,986
City of WestminsterWest End5,489CONLAB1,2531,469678013101513,682
 Total63,698CONCON16,46014,7428,54901,28901,67742,717

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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