Cities of London and Westminster: Seat Details

Cities of London and Westminster: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Nickie Aiken  (CON)
County/Area:City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:63,700
Turnout:67.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON17,04939.9%25.4%
LIB13,09630.7%12.9%
LAB11,62427.2%44.0%
Green7281.7%8.3%
OTH2260.5%0.0%
Reform00.0%9.4%
CON Majority3,9539.3%18.6%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
10%
LIB
0%
LAB
89%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%

Cities of London and Westminster : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cities of London and Westminster constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Left
National Position25° Glo16° Glo
Social Position9° Lib5° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %30%40%52%
Average Age43.945.349.5
Good Education74%60%49%
Employed59%61%58%
Homeowner30%48%63%
Car owner31%59%77%
Married31%40%45%
Ethnic White61%54%83%
Christian44%44%50%
ABC1 Class74%59%56%
Gross Household Income£56,681£53,561£42,397
Deprivation45%52%52%
Average House Price£1,861,090£631,346£313,528

Cities of London and Westminster ranks #614 for "Leave", #187 for "Economic Right Position", #617 for "National Position" and #566 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Cities of London and Westminster: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cities of London and Westminster

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cities of London and Westminster.

Cities of London and WestminsterActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,472LIBLAB2293832598481001,036
City of LondonAldgate39LIBLAB4115110022
City of LondonBassishaw5LIBLAB12100004
City of LondonBillingsgate16CONLAB24201009
City of LondonBishopsgate119LIBLAB163513670077
City of LondonBread Street40CONLAB695210023
City of LondonBridge42LIBLAB6117220028
City of LondonBroad Street14LIBLAB24201009
City of LondonCandlewick14LIBLAB243110011
City of LondonCastle Baynard269LIBLAB406640141200172
City of LondonCheap12CONLAB13200006
City of LondonColeman Street6LIBLAB12100004
City of LondonCordwainer11CONCON22100005
City of LondonCornhill9CONLAB12100004
City of LondonCripplegate2,116LIBLAB277591308118111001,405
City of LondonDowgate18LIBLAB243110011
City of LondonFarringdon Within515LIBLAB7413976282800345
City of LondonFarringdon Without451LIBLAB6012356222000281
City of LondonLangbourn6LIBLAB12100004
City of LondonLime Street2LIBCON00000000
City of LondonPortsoken787LABLAB4423232352200365
City of LondonQueenhithe263LIBLAB406539141300171
City of LondonTower181LIBLAB2248189800105
City of LondonVintry4CONCON11000002
City of LondonWalbrook2LIBCON00000000
City of WestminsterHyde Park5,256CONLAB7261,412319285280003,022
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia6,446CONLAB1,3671,649449416347004,228
City of WestminsterLancaster Gate1,518CONLAB19947982878200929
City of WestminsterMarylebone7,262CONLAB1,3531,783642424425004,627
City of WestminsterPimlico North7,266CONLAB1,1081,909600413339004,369
City of WestminsterPimlico South7,206CONLAB8741,962442404291003,973
City of WestminsterRegent's Park2,096CONLAB35560397123101001,279
City of WestminsterSt James's6,434CONLAB1,0761,758505384333004,056
City of WestminsterVincent Square7,171CONLAB9571,983527397331004,195
City of WestminsterWest End6,633CONLAB1,0811,950509405416004,361
 Total63,701CONLAB9,93017,2315,0473,6753,2550039,138

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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