Cornwall North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cornwall North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Scott Mann  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 69,935
Turnout: 73.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,67159.4%58.1%
LIB15,91930.8%19.7%
LAB4,5168.7%16.2%
OTH5721.1%4.6%
Green00.0%1.4%
CON Majority14,75228.5%Pred Maj 38.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
0%
LAB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Cornwall North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cornwall North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right7° Right
National Position12° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education35%41%39%
Good Job41%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age52.950.448.3
ABC1 Class42%54%54%

Cornwall North ranks #171 for "Leave", #191 for "Right", #94 for "National" and #238 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cornwall North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cornwall North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cornwall North.

Cornwall NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallAltarnun2,731CONCON1,2213103790280802,018
CornwallBodmin St Leonard3,299CONCON1,16759152103301262,438
CornwallBodmin St Mary's3,849CONCON1,41276051703901162,844
CornwallBodmin St Petroc4,038CONCON1,67664846404101542,983
CornwallBude6,445CONCON2,6447701,09506501884,762
CornwallCamelford3,275CONCON1,32234260303301212,421
CornwallGrenville and Stratton3,907CONCON1,73139560904001132,888
CornwallLanivet and Blisland3,227CONCON1,43427651803301242,385
CornwallLaunceston Central2,777CONCON1,0074524710280952,053
CornwallLaunceston North and North Petherwin3,796CONCON1,67339257403801292,806
CornwallLaunceston South3,187CONCON1,23738059303201102,352
CornwallPadstow3,266CONCON1,4043165640330972,414
CornwallPoundstock3,749CONCON1,65334262203801152,770
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy3,674CONCON1,84132138303701342,716
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2,529CONCON1,4321931240200991,868
CornwallSt Teath and St Breward3,300CONCON1,32138959603301002,439
CornwallStokeclimsland3,173CONCON1,58938419603101452,345
CornwallTintagel3,323CONCON1,53032142903401412,455
CornwallWadebridge East3,378CONCON1,4554634440340992,495
CornwallWadebridge West3,012CONCON1,2613494970300902,227
 Total69,935CONCON30,0108,39410,199070002,37651,679

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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