Derbyshire Dales: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Derbyshire Dales: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Sarah Dines  (CON)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 65,060
Turnout: 76.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,35658.7%57.4%
LAB11,97523.9%28.1%
LIB6,62713.2%7.7%
Green2,0584.1%4.9%
OTH00.0%1.9%
CON Majority17,38134.8%Pred Maj 29.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Derbyshire Dales : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Derbyshire Dales constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position5° Nat7° Nat
Social Position3° Con4° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born97%90%87%
Good Education45%37%39%
Good Job54%48%51%
High SEC56%47%51%
Average Age53.548.948.3
ABC1 Class57%50%54%

Derbyshire Dales ranks #386 for "Leave", #221 for "Right", #283 for "National" and #279 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Derbyshire Dales: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Derbyshire Dales

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Derbyshire Dales.

Derbyshire DalesActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlport2,181CONCON1,0813479601250271,676
Amber ValleyCrich2,164CONCON90545614001250371,663
Amber ValleySouth West Parishes3,103CONCON1,6774461480740412,386
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne North2,931CONCON1,2066782350740602,253
Derbyshire DalesAshbourne South4,126CONCON1,68186237201680903,173
Derbyshire DalesBakewell3,613CONCON1,8326861370810402,776
Derbyshire DalesBradwell1,497CONCON629409560390161,149
Derbyshire DalesBrailsford1,526CONCON848233450310141,171
Derbyshire DalesCalver1,490CONCON716260620900181,146
Derbyshire DalesCarsington Water1,569CONCON772285870390231,206
Derbyshire DalesChatsworth1,376CONCON763175690330191,059
Derbyshire DalesClifton and Bradley1,474CONCON812239380320121,133
Derbyshire DalesDarley Dale4,706CONCON1,9821,01431902170833,615
Derbyshire DalesDovedale and Parwich1,356CONCON733210540290161,042
Derbyshire DalesDoveridge and Sudbury1,629CONCON848291560400171,252
Derbyshire DalesHartington and Taddington1,380CONCON680222640770181,061
Derbyshire DalesHathersage and Eyam3,181CONCON1,2348831860920492,444
Derbyshire DalesHulland1,512CONCON826245460310141,162
Derbyshire DalesLathkill and Bradford1,288CONCON60628349037014989
Derbyshire DalesLitton and Longstone1,325CONCON5692421350420291,017
Derbyshire DalesMasson2,420CONCON8507409701430281,858
Derbyshire DalesMatlock All Saints4,381CONCON1,63796652901400953,367
Derbyshire DalesMatlock St Giles4,413CONCON1,6021,14441701330963,392
Derbyshire DalesNorbury1,436CONCON804217390310131,104
Derbyshire DalesStanton1,444CONCON618322560960161,108
Derbyshire DalesTideswell1,392CONCON555348570930161,069
Derbyshire DalesWinster and South Darley1,357CONCON664260590440171,044
Derbyshire DalesWirksworth4,811CONLAB1,5941,59518002760533,698
 Total65,081CONCON28,72414,0583,82802,432097150,013

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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