Devon North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devon North: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Selaine Saxby  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 75,853
Turnout: 73.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,47956.6%48.3%
LIB16,66630.0%35.2%
LAB5,0979.2%12.8%
Green1,7593.2%2.7%
OTH5801.0%1.1%
CON Majority14,81326.7%Pred Maj 13.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
74%
LIB
25%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Devon North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devon North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education35%40%39%
Good Job44%50%51%
High SEC47%52%51%
Average Age52.450.548.5
ABC1 Class46%54%54%

Devon North ranks #239 for "Leave", #219 for "Right", #154 for "National" and #294 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Devon North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devon North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devon North at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devon North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Devon NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell20151,6771831,201556361426
North DevonBishop's Nympton201500002681,052
North DevonBratton Fleming20154568400164594
North DevonBraunton East20151,5711581,530081554
North DevonBraunton West20152,3224821,435000
North DevonCentral Town201597301,6910941105
North DevonChittlehampton201553800178173735
North DevonChulmleigh201572302792271800
North DevonCombe Martin20151,5940004682,095
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley201591501,4900534130
North DevonFremington20151,004006883072,366
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe20151,57201,48709350
North DevonHeanton Punchardon20156660003150
North DevonIlfracombe Central20151,2073270396798520
North DevonIlfracombe East20154100000962
North DevonIlfracombe West20159852531,353579663101
North DevonInstow20156760003260
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw20152,53201,3764849560
North DevonLongbridge20152,3812311,29105360
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth20153800000644
North DevonMarwood2015504058201730
North DevonNewport20151,91401,32201,2050
North DevonNorth Molton20159680003790
North DevonPilton20151,0302451,97401,02158
North DevonSouth Molton201597901,23605172,164
North DevonWitheridge201500003581,044
North DevonYeo Valley20155751801,546452454294

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Devon NorthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,7421,5892388020840292,742
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,539657903380330101,128
North DevonBratton Fleming1,697746933580350121,244
North DevonBraunton East3,1911,2781727960690222,337
North DevonBraunton West3,3641,4292047370700242,464
North DevonCentral Town3,9591,47234593901100352,901
North DevonChittlehampton1,9188691033820390131,406
North DevonChulmleigh1,667760893280330111,221
North DevonCombe Martin3,2031,4241826490690232,347
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,7261,36434388901020322,730
North DevonFremington3,5001,5312326980760272,564
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe3,0471,2251607610670202,233
North DevonHeanton Punchardon2,1719951224120470141,590
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,6451,54237062101010372,671
North DevonIlfracombe East1,9208261253960440161,407
North DevonIlfracombe West3,7821,4952928570950322,771
North DevonInstow1,1955485724002308876
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw3,9001,6832158490830272,857
North DevonLongbridge3,3041,4371956930710242,420
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,34259974274027010984
North DevonMarwood1,513613683870300101,108
North DevonNewport3,7521,5072658560930282,749
North DevonNorth Molton1,783842883280360121,306
North DevonPilton3,5771,2892599560890272,620
North DevonSouth Molton3,9701,6142838860950312,909
North DevonWitheridge1,8727971154070400131,372
North DevonYeo Valley3,5731,3483158270950332,618
 Total75,85231,4795,09416,66601,756058055,575

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devon North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devon North.

Devon NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,7421,3613379430720292,742
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,5395631313960280101,128
North DevonBratton Fleming1,6976431384220300121,245
North DevonBraunton East3,1911,0842569160590222,337
North DevonBraunton West3,3641,2242928640600242,464
North DevonCentral Town3,9591,2314511,0900940352,901
North DevonChittlehampton1,9187521534540330131,405
North DevonChulmleigh1,6676581333910280111,221
North DevonCombe Martin3,2031,2292667700590232,347
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,7261,1374431,0310870322,730
North DevonFremington3,5001,3183248300650272,564
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe3,0471,0392408760570202,232
North DevonHeanton Punchardon2,1718631794940400141,590
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,6451,3204677600860372,670
North DevonIlfracombe East1,9207091764690380161,408
North DevonIlfracombe West3,7821,2653921,0010810322,771
North DevonInstow1,1954758828502008876
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw3,9001,4453189960710272,857
North DevonLongbridge3,3041,2362828170610242,420
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,342517109324023010983
North DevonMarwood1,5135211084440260101,109
North DevonNewport3,7521,2783659980790282,748
North DevonNorth Molton1,7837331353950310121,306
North DevonPilton3,5771,0713541,0920760272,620
North DevonSouth Molton3,9701,3723881,0360810312,908
North DevonWitheridge1,8726831644780340131,372
North DevonYeo Valley3,5731,1304109630810332,617
 Total75,85226,8577,09919,53501,500058055,571

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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