Dorset South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dorset South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Richard Drax  (CON)
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
Electorate: 72,924
Turnout: 70.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,02458.8%57.5%
LAB12,87125.2%29.6%
LIB5,43210.6%4.7%
Green2,2464.4%5.2%
OTH4850.9%3.0%
CON Majority17,15333.6%Pred Maj 28.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Dorset South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dorset South constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right7° Right
National Position11° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %60%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born94%92%87%
Good Education37%41%39%
Good Job47%50%51%
High SEC51%52%51%
Average Age52.250.448.3
ABC1 Class49%54%54%

Dorset South ranks #162 for "Leave", #260 for "Right", #130 for "National" and #211 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dorset South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dorset South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dorset South.

Dorset SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DorsetChickerell1,326CONCON57620043064035918
DorsetCrossways3,066CONCON1,3114821590790912,122
DorsetLittlemoor and Preston7,829CONCON3,2031,530194032901605,416
DorsetMelcombe Regis3,455CONCON1,2897697302160432,390
DorsetPortland9,614CONCON3,3482,512205043101536,649
DorsetRadipole7,509CONCON3,0091,389409021301755,195
DorsetRodwell and Wyke11,254CONCON4,1692,624230058601777,786
DorsetSouth East Purbeck3,609CONCON1,63353212809401102,497
DorsetSwanage8,170CONCON3,5011,529238019401905,652
DorsetUpwey and Broadwey3,868CONCON1,60171417801060782,677
DorsetWareham1,126CONCON46219363031030779
DorsetWest Purbeck5,842CONCON2,781829178011901354,042
DorsetWestham6,937CONCON2,4011,760315018101404,797
DorsetWinterborne and Broadmayne204CONCON8831110604140
 Total73,809CONCON29,37215,0942,42402,64901,52151,060

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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