Down South: Seat Details
Down South: Overview
| MP at 2019: | Chris Hazzard (SF) |
| County/Area: | Down (Northern Ireland) |
| Electorate: | 79,175 |
| Turnout: | 62.9% |
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Share | Pred Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 16,137 | 32.4% | 32.5% |
| SDLP | 14,517 | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| DUP | 7,619 | 15.3% | 15.4% |
| Alliance | 6,916 | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| UUP | 3,307 | 6.6% | 6.7% |
| OTH | 1,266 | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| SF Majority | 1,620 | 3.3% | 3.3% Pred Maj |
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| SF |
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| SDLP |
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| DUP |
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| Alliance |
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| UUP |
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| OTH |
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Down South : Political and Demographic indicators
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Seat | Northern Ireland | All UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | SF | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | SF | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | SDLP | DUP | CON |
| EU Leave % | 33% | 44% | 52% |
| British Identity | 27% | 40% | 29% |
| Good Health | 51% | 48% | 48% |
| UK Born | 94% | 93% | 87% |
| Good Education | 37% | 36% | 39% |
| Good Job | 45% | 47% | 51% |
| High SEC | 62% | 57% | 51% |
| Average Age | 47.0 | 47.2 | 48.3 |
| ABC1 Class | 42% | 46% | 53% |
Down South ranks #598 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| British Identity | National Identity (KS202) | Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British |
| Good Health | Health (KS301) | Those answering 'Very Good Health' |
| UK Born | Country of Birth (QS203) | Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other |
| Good Education | Highest level of Qualification (QS501) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Good Job | Occupation (QS606) | Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers) |
| High SEC | NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609) | National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed). |
| Average Age | Age (QS103) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (QS611) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
Down South: Map
Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down South
This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down South.
| Down South | Actual | Predicted Results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2019 | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | UUP Votes | SDLP Votes | DUP Votes | Alliance Votes | Green Votes | SF Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Banbridge East | 686 | DUP | DUP | 56 | 65 | 139 | 98 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 3 | 431 |
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Gransha | 844 | DUP | DUP | 56 | 69 | 215 | 104 | 0 | 73 | 0 | 13 | 530 |
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Loughbrickland | 1,271 | DUP | DUP | 109 | 142 | 256 | 130 | 0 | 156 | 0 | 5 | 798 |
| Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon | Rathfriland | 3,475 | DUP | DUP | 282 | 337 | 839 | 329 | 0 | 356 | 0 | 43 | 2,186 |
| Lisburn and Castlereagh | Dromara | 19 | DUP | DUP | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Abbey | 234 | SF | SF | 2 | 35 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 4 | 147 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Annalong | 3,054 | SF | SF | 209 | 293 | 487 | 297 | 0 | 585 | 0 | 49 | 1,920 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Ballydugan | 2,666 | SF | SF | 121 | 425 | 208 | 279 | 0 | 619 | 0 | 23 | 1,675 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Ballyward | 3,056 | SF | SF | 203 | 427 | 349 | 328 | 0 | 591 | 0 | 20 | 1,918 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Binnian | 3,038 | DUP | DUP | 211 | 262 | 647 | 282 | 0 | 460 | 0 | 49 | 1,911 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Burren | 3,022 | SDLP | SDLP | 77 | 710 | 190 | 181 | 0 | 690 | 0 | 51 | 1,899 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Castlewellan | 2,932 | SF | SF | 88 | 493 | 168 | 206 | 0 | 846 | 0 | 44 | 1,845 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Cathedral | 2,732 | SDLP | SDLP | 51 | 746 | 161 | 152 | 0 | 563 | 0 | 45 | 1,718 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Crossgar and Killyleagh | 1,287 | DUP | DUP | 92 | 155 | 235 | 184 | 0 | 120 | 0 | 21 | 807 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Damolly | 569 | SF | SF | 14 | 84 | 32 | 48 | 0 | 170 | 0 | 8 | 356 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Derryboy | 288 | DUP | DUP | 20 | 32 | 60 | 39 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 182 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Derryleckagh | 3,340 | SF | SF | 94 | 747 | 214 | 203 | 0 | 784 | 0 | 57 | 2,099 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Donard | 2,754 | SF | SF | 92 | 437 | 166 | 373 | 0 | 622 | 0 | 43 | 1,733 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Drumaness | 2,954 | SF | SF | 151 | 455 | 234 | 321 | 0 | 666 | 0 | 31 | 1,858 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Dundrum | 3,088 | SF | SF | 180 | 456 | 274 | 386 | 0 | 616 | 0 | 28 | 1,940 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Hilltown | 3,514 | SF | SF | 155 | 710 | 251 | 240 | 0 | 789 | 0 | 63 | 2,208 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Kilkeel | 2,607 | SF | SF | 169 | 230 | 437 | 317 | 0 | 443 | 0 | 43 | 1,639 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Knocknashinna | 3,087 | SDLP | SDLP | 45 | 937 | 184 | 185 | 0 | 538 | 0 | 52 | 1,941 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Lecale | 3,016 | SDLP | SDLP | 68 | 884 | 186 | 176 | 0 | 532 | 0 | 50 | 1,896 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Lisnacree | 3,314 | SF | SF | 118 | 472 | 239 | 285 | 0 | 915 | 0 | 54 | 2,083 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Mayobridge | 3,233 | SF | SF | 167 | 645 | 254 | 232 | 0 | 675 | 0 | 59 | 2,032 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Murlough | 3,274 | SF | SF | 87 | 501 | 196 | 326 | 0 | 896 | 0 | 52 | 2,058 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Quoile | 2,832 | SDLP | SDLP | 130 | 850 | 197 | 264 | 0 | 290 | 0 | 49 | 1,780 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Rostrevor | 3,264 | SDLP | SDLP | 63 | 764 | 208 | 259 | 0 | 699 | 0 | 58 | 2,051 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | St Patrick's | 604 | SF | SF | 13 | 104 | 32 | 63 | 0 | 159 | 0 | 8 | 379 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Strangford | 2,938 | SDLP | SDLP | 67 | 904 | 179 | 187 | 0 | 461 | 0 | 49 | 1,847 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Tollymore | 2,952 | SF | SF | 80 | 479 | 174 | 226 | 0 | 851 | 0 | 46 | 1,856 |
| Newry, Mourne and Down | Warrenpoint | 3,229 | SF | SF | 59 | 684 | 212 | 200 | 0 | 815 | 0 | 60 | 2,030 |
| Total | 79,173 | SF | SF | 3,330 | 14,536 | 7,641 | 6,916 | 0 | 16,157 | 0 | 1,185 | 49,765 | |
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.