Down South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down South: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 79,175
Turnout: 62.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF16,13732.4%32.5%
SDLP14,51729.2%29.2%
DUP7,61915.3%15.4%
Alliance6,91613.9%13.9%
UUP3,3076.6%6.7%
OTH1,2662.5%2.4%
SF Majority1,6203.3%Pred Maj 3.3%
Chance of
winning
SF
54%
SDLP
37%
DUP
5%
Alliance
3%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity27%40%29%
Good Health51%48%48%
UK Born94%93%87%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age47.047.248.3
ABC1 Class42%46%53%

Down South ranks #598 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down South.

Down SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East686DUPDUP56651399807003431
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha844DUPDUP5669215104073013530
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,271DUPDUP109142256130015605798
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,475DUPDUP28233783932903560432,186
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara19DUPDUP1252020012
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey234SFSF235131407904147
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong3,054SFSF20929348729705850491,920
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,666SFSF12142520827906190231,675
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward3,056SFSF20342734932805910201,918
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian3,038DUPDUP21126264728204600491,911
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren3,022SDLPSDLP7771019018106900511,899
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan2,932SFSF8849316820608460441,845
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,732SDLPSDLP5174616115205630451,718
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,287DUPDUP921552351840120021807
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly569SFSF14843248017008356
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy288DUPDUP2032603902605182
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,340SFSF9474721420307840572,099
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,754SFSF9243716637306220431,733
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,954SFSF15145523432106660311,858
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,088SFSF18045627438606160281,940
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,514SFSF15571025124007890632,208
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,607SFSF16923043731704430431,639
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,087SDLPSDLP4593718418505380521,941
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,016SDLPSDLP6888418617605320501,896
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,314SFSF11847223928509150542,083
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,233SFSF16764525423206750592,032
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough3,274SFSF8750119632608960522,058
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,832SDLPSDLP13085019726402900491,780
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,264SDLPSDLP6376420825906990582,051
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's604SFSF131043263015908379
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,938SDLPSDLP6790417918704610491,847
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,952SFSF8047917422608510461,856
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,229SFSF5968421220008150602,030
 Total79,173SFSF3,33014,5367,6416,916016,15701,18549,765

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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