Down South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down South: Overview

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019: Chris Hazzard (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 79,175
Turnout: 62.9%

	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SF	16,137	32.4%	32.5%
SDLP	14,517	29.2%	29.2%
DUP	7,619	15.3%	15.4%
Alliance	6,916	13.9%	13.9%
UUP	3,307	6.6%	6.7%
OTH	1,266	2.5%	2.4%
SF Majority	1,620	3.3%	Pred Maj 3.3%

Chance of
winning

54%

SDLP

37%

DUP

Alliance

UUP

OTH

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator	Seat	Northern Ireland	All UK
Party Winner 2019	SF	DUP	CON
Party Winner 2017	SF	DUP	CON
Party Winner 2015	SDLP	DUP	CON
EU Leave %	33%	44%	52%
British Identity	27%	40%	29%
Good Health	51%	48%	48%
UK Born	94%	93%	87%
Good Education	37%	36%	39%
Good Job	45%	47%	51%
High SEC	62%	57%	51%
Average Age	47.0	47.2	48.3
ABC1 Class	42%	46%	53%

Down South ranks #598 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic	Cat 1	Cat 2	Cat 3	Cat 4	Cat 5
EU Leave %	Very Remain	Remain	Balanced	Leave	Very Leave
Census	Very Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator	Census Question	Definition / Included Census Categories
Party Winner	–	Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %	–	EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British Identity	National Identity (KS202)	Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good Health	Health (KS301)	Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK Born	Country of Birth (QS203)	Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good Education	Highest level of Qualification (QS501)	Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good Job	Occupation (QS606)	Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SEC	NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)	National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average Age	Age (QS103)	Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 Class	Approximated Social Grade (QS611)	Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down South: Map

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down South.

Down South			Actual	Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2019	GE19 Winner	Pred Winner	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	686	DUP	DUP	56	65	139	98	0	70	0	3	431
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	844	DUP	DUP	56	69	215	104	0	73	0	13	530
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	1,271	DUP	DUP	109	142	256	130	0	156	0	5	798
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Rathfriland	3,475	DUP	DUP	282	337	839	329	0	356	0	43	2,186
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dromara	19	DUP	DUP	1	2	5	2	0	2	0	0	12
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	234	SF	SF	2	35	13	14	0	79	0	4	147
Newry, Mourne and Down	Annalong	3,054	SF	SF	209	293	487	297	0	585	0	49	1,920
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballydugan	2,666	SF	SF	121	425	208	279	0	619	0	23	1,675
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	3,056	SF	SF	203	427	349	328	0	591	0	20	1,918
Newry, Mourne and Down	Binnian	3,038	DUP	DUP	211	262	647	282	0	460	0	49	1,911
Newry, Mourne and Down	Burren	3,022	SDLP	SDLP	77	710	190	181	0	690	0	51	1,899
Newry, Mourne and Down	Castlewellan	2,932	SF	SF	88	493	168	206	0	846	0	44	1,845
Newry, Mourne and Down	Cathedral	2,732	SDLP	SDLP	51	746	161	152	0	563	0	45	1,718
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,287	DUP	DUP	92	155	235	184	0	120	0	21	807
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	569	SF	SF	14	84	32	48	0	170	0	8	356
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	288	DUP	DUP	20	32	60	39	0	26	0	5	182
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryleckagh	3,340	SF	SF	94	747	214	203	0	784	0	57	2,099
Newry, Mourne and Down	Donard	2,754	SF	SF	92	437	166	373	0	622	0	43	1,733
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumaness	2,954	SF	SF	151	455	234	321	0	666	0	31	1,858
Newry, Mourne and Down	Dundrum	3,088	SF	SF	180	456	274	386	0	616	0	28	1,940
Newry, Mourne and Down	Hilltown	3,514	SF	SF	155	710	251	240	0	789	0	63	2,208
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilkeel	2,607	SF	SF	169	230	437	317	0	443	0	43	1,639
Newry, Mourne and Down	Knocknashinna	3,087	SDLP	SDLP	45	937	184	185	0	538	0	52	1,941
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lecale	3,016	SDLP	SDLP	68	884	186	176	0	532	0	50	1,896
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lisnacree	3,314	SF	SF	118	472	239	285	0	915	0	54	2,083
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	3,233	SF	SF	167	645	254	232	0	675	0	59	2,032
Newry, Mourne and Down	Murlough	3,274	SF	SF	87	501	196	326	0	896	0	52	2,058
Newry, Mourne and Down	Quoile	2,832	SDLP	SDLP	130	850	197	264	0	290	0	49	1,780
Newry, Mourne and Down	Rostrevor	3,264	SDLP	SDLP	63	764	208	259	0	699	0	58	2,051
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	604	SF	SF	13	104	32	63	0	159	0	8	379
Newry, Mourne and Down	Strangford	2,938	SDLP	SDLP	67	904	179	187	0	461	0	49	1,847
Newry, Mourne and Down	Tollymore	2,952	SF	SF	80	479	174	226	0	851	0	46	1,856
Newry, Mourne and Down	Warrenpoint	3,229	SF	SF	59	684	212	200	0	815	0	60	2,030
	Total	79,173	SF	SF	3,330	14,536	7,641	6,916	0	16,157	0	1,185	49,765

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.