Down South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down South: Overview

 Predicted winner: SF 
 Acual winner: SF 

MP at 2019: Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 79,175
Turnout: 62.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF16,13732.4%41.6%
SDLP14,51729.2%29.8%
DUP7,61915.3%10.8%
Alliance6,91613.9%9.2%
UUP3,3076.6%5.3%
OTH1,2662.5%3.2%
SF Majority1,6203.3%Pred Maj 11.8%
Chance of
winning
SF
81%
SDLP
19%
DUP
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity27%40%29%
Good Health51%48%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age47.047.248.4
ABC1 Class42%45%53%

Down South ranks #601 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Down South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Down South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Down South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Down South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Down SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2014658232370119010114
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha201450889642810118236
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland201469228336670023214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland201473017946937020259
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey201442378000536359
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2014351293223150370312
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2014893101771430402125
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2014206292276134035694
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2014378214322110279338
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2014122669500508103
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan20149444010596066882
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2014546141400452175
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh2014327317324960191202
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2014103427000512421
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2014376278365960109150
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh20141537161000581122
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2014198446471130395265
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness20141433402101460435110
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum20141873342521710381106
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown20142156908100586163
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2014312230246280301361
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna201448770700433203
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2014656532900390188
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree201424848772230641327
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge201424766210400526153
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough201417745135510533264
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile20141336158200227135
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor2014106799800555186
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2014125579000530351
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2014746641200340138
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore201418146328200577245
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint2014907151800624271

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Down SouthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East8114082164850124015510
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha721326719359091011453
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,03854113202950169019652
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,47217632481727205350572,181
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey251640152007204157
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,99516337140123706590511,882
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,6609637125132005860481,672
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,76112831739632905150511,736
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,95716429159723405220501,858
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,86810666917022305930421,803
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,17210445619330108880521,994
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,9627973917223005990421,861
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,249631672211280183023785
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly586221013746015309368
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy4312150874505908270
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,22612871519325006940482,028
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,80513451618530605750481,764
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,95312838730435006330541,856
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,05514239138236705820561,920
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,53715774022127607760532,223
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,83315929746723405740481,779
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,3078395118925805510472,079
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,0028882117623405250431,887
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,44316752022627109260542,164
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,14214467820024506610481,976
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,89613647218624907300471,820
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,69912281517321103350411,697
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,37510984419826206580492,120
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's7892916349620181012496
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,7778880516221604340411,746
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,90013446418522707690441,823
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,50410677920727307860512,202
 Total79,1773,30814,5167,6196,915016,13801,26649,762

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down South.

Down SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East8113510513800210022510
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha721288417000155016453
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,0384714016800269027651
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,472155406705008360802,182
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey25154511009005156
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,995143442304009210711,881
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,66084451186008800711,672
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,761113404307008370761,737
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,957144361501007810701,857
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,86893725126008000581,802
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,17291529143001,1570731,993
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,96269796128008100581,861
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,2495520218100314033785
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly586191132700196012367
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy43118627300105012270
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,226113778143009280662,028
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,805118590137008490691,763
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,953113476226009620791,856
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,055125488284009400831,920
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,537138811164001,0370732,223
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,833140366375008300681,779
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,307731,015140007860652,079
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,00277879131007400601,887
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,443147590168001,1850742,164
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,142127741148008940661,976
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,896120535138009620651,820
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,699107869128005360561,696
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,37596910147009000682,121
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's789251793600239016495
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,77777859120006330561,745
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,900118523137009850611,824
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,50493847154001,0380702,202
 Total79,1772,90616,3215,9440022,80501,77949,755

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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