Down South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down South: Overview

Predicted winner: SF
Acual winner: SF

MP at 2019: Chris Hazzard (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 79,175
Turnout: 62.9%

	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SF	16,137	32.4%	41.6%
SDLP	14,517	29.2%	29.8%
DUP	7,619	15.3%	10.8%
Alliance	6,916	13.9%	9.2%
UUP	3,307	6.6%	5.3%
OTH	1,266	2.5%	3.2%
SF Majority	1,620	3.3%	Pred Maj 11.8%

Chance of
winning

81%

SDLP

19%

DUP

Alliance

UUP

OTH

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator	Seat	Northern Ireland	All UK
Party Winner 2019	SF	DUP	CON
Party Winner 2017	SF	DUP	CON
Party Winner 2015	SDLP	DUP	CON
EU Leave %	33%	44%	52%
British Identity	27%	40%	29%
Good Health	51%	48%	48%
UK Born	94%	93%	88%
Good Education	37%	36%	39%
Good Job	45%	47%	51%
High SEC	62%	57%	51%
Average Age	47.0	47.2	48.4
ABC1 Class	42%	45%	53%

Down South ranks #601 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

Topic	Cat 1	Cat 2	Cat 3	Cat 4	Cat 5
EU Leave %	Very Remain	Remain	Balanced	Leave	Very Leave
Census	Very Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Indicator	Census Question	Definition / Included Census Categories
Party Winner	–	Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %	–	EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British Identity	National Identity (KS202)	Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good Health	Health (KS301)	Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK Born	Country of Birth (QS203)	Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good Education	Highest level of Qualification (QS501)	Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good Job	Occupation (QS606)	Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SEC	NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)	National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average Age	Age (QS103)	Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 Class	Approximated Social Grade (QS611)	Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down South: Map

Down South: Ward-by-ward

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Down South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Down South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Down South			Actual Results
District	Ward	Election Year	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	OTH Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	2014	658	232	370	119	0	101	14
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	2014	508	89	642	81	0	118	236
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	2014	692	283	366	70	0	232	14
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Rathfriland	2014	730	179	469	37	0	202	59
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	2014	42	378	0	0	0	536	359
Newry, Mourne and Down	Annalong	2014	351	293	223	15	0	370	312
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballydugan	2014	89	310	177	143	0	402	125
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	2014	206	292	276	134	0	356	94
Newry, Mourne and Down	Binnian	2014	378	214	322	11	0	279	338
Newry, Mourne and Down	Burren	2014	122	669	5	0	0	508	103
Newry, Mourne and Down	Castlewellan	2014	94	440	105	96	0	668	82
Newry, Mourne and Down	Cathedral	2014	54	614	14	0	0	452	175
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	2014	327	317	324	96	0	191	202
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	2014	103	427	0	0	0	512	421
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	2014	376	278	365	96	0	109	150
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryleckagh	2014	153	716	10	0	0	581	122
Newry, Mourne and Down	Donard	2014	198	446	47	113	0	395	265
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumaness	2014	143	340	210	146	0	435	110
Newry, Mourne and Down	Dundrum	2014	187	334	252	171	0	381	106
Newry, Mourne and Down	Hilltown	2014	215	690	81	0	0	586	163
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilkeel	2014	312	230	246	28	0	301	361
Newry, Mourne and Down	Knocknashinna	2014	48	770	7	0	0	433	203
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lecale	2014	65	653	29	0	0	390	188
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lisnacree	2014	248	487	72	23	0	641	327
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	2014	247	662	104	0	0	526	153
Newry, Mourne and Down	Murlough	2014	177	451	35	51	0	533	264
Newry, Mourne and Down	Quoile	2014	133	615	82	0	0	227	135
Newry, Mourne and Down	Rostrevor	2014	106	799	8	0	0	555	186
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	2014	125	579	0	0	0	530	351
Newry, Mourne and Down	Strangford	2014	74	664	12	0	0	340	138
Newry, Mourne and Down	Tollymore	2014	181	463	28	20	0	577	245
Newry, Mourne and Down	Warrenpoint	2014	90	715	18	0	0	624	271

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Down South			Est. 2019 General Election Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2019	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	811	40	82	164	85	0	124	0	15	510
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	721	32	67	193	59	0	91	0	11	453
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	1,038	54	113	202	95	0	169	0	19	652
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Rathfriland	3,472	176	324	817	272	0	535	0	57	2,181
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	251	6	40	15	20	0	72	0	4	157
Newry, Mourne and Down	Annalong	2,995	163	371	401	237	0	659	0	51	1,882
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballydugan	2,660	96	371	251	320	0	586	0	48	1,672
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	2,761	128	317	396	329	0	515	0	51	1,736
Newry, Mourne and Down	Binnian	2,957	164	291	597	234	0	522	0	50	1,858
Newry, Mourne and Down	Burren	2,868	106	669	170	223	0	593	0	42	1,803
Newry, Mourne and Down	Castlewellan	3,172	104	456	193	301	0	888	0	52	1,994
Newry, Mourne and Down	Cathedral	2,962	79	739	172	230	0	599	0	42	1,861
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,249	63	167	221	128	0	183	0	23	785
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	586	22	101	37	46	0	153	0	9	368
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	431	21	50	87	45	0	59	0	8	270
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryleckagh	3,226	128	715	193	250	0	694	0	48	2,028
Newry, Mourne and Down	Donard	2,805	134	516	185	306	0	575	0	48	1,764
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumaness	2,953	128	387	304	350	0	633	0	54	1,856
Newry, Mourne and Down	Dundrum	3,055	142	391	382	367	0	582	0	56	1,920
Newry, Mourne and Down	Hilltown	3,537	157	740	221	276	0	776	0	53	2,223
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilkeel	2,833	159	297	467	234	0	574	0	48	1,779
Newry, Mourne and Down	Knocknashinna	3,307	83	951	189	258	0	551	0	47	2,079
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lecale	3,002	88	821	176	234	0	525	0	43	1,887
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lisnacree	3,443	167	520	226	271	0	926	0	54	2,164
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	3,142	144	678	200	245	0	661	0	48	1,976
Newry, Mourne and Down	Murlough	2,896	136	472	186	249	0	730	0	47	1,820
Newry, Mourne and Down	Quoile	2,699	122	815	173	211	0	335	0	41	1,697
Newry, Mourne and Down	Rostrevor	3,375	109	844	198	262	0	658	0	49	2,120
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	789	29	163	49	62	0	181	0	12	496
Newry, Mourne and Down	Strangford	2,777	88	805	162	216	0	434	0	41	1,746
Newry, Mourne and Down	Tollymore	2,900	134	464	185	227	0	769	0	44	1,823
Newry, Mourne and Down	Warrenpoint	3,504	106	779	207	273	0	786	0	51	2,202
	Total	79,177	3,308	14,516	7,619	6,915	0	16,138	0	1,266	49,762

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down South.

Down South			Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2019	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	811	35	105	138	0	0	210	0	22	510
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	721	28	84	170	0	0	155	0	16	453
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	1,038	47	140	168	0	0	269	0	27	651
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Rathfriland	3,472	155	406	705	0	0	836	0	80	2,182
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	251	5	45	11	0	0	90	0	5	156
Newry, Mourne and Down	Annalong	2,995	143	442	304	0	0	921	0	71	1,881
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballydugan	2,660	84	451	186	0	0	880	0	71	1,672
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	2,761	113	404	307	0	0	837	0	76	1,737
Newry, Mourne and Down	Binnian	2,957	144	361	501	0	0	781	0	70	1,857
Newry, Mourne and Down	Burren	2,868	93	725	126	0	0	800	0	58	1,802
Newry, Mourne and Down	Castlewellan	3,172	91	529	143	0	0	1,157	0	73	1,993
Newry, Mourne and Down	Cathedral	2,962	69	796	128	0	0	810	0	58	1,861
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,249	55	202	181	0	0	314	0	33	785
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	586	19	113	27	0	0	196	0	12	367
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	431	18	62	73	0	0	105	0	12	270
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryleckagh	3,226	113	778	143	0	0	928	0	66	2,028
Newry, Mourne and Down	Donard	2,805	118	590	137	0	0	849	0	69	1,763
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumaness	2,953	113	476	226	0	0	962	0	79	1,856
Newry, Mourne and Down	Dundrum	3,055	125	488	284	0	0	940	0	83	1,920
Newry, Mourne and Down	Hilltown	3,537	138	811	164	0	0	1,037	0	73	2,223
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilkeel	2,833	140	366	375	0	0	830	0	68	1,779
Newry, Mourne and Down	Knocknashinna	3,307	73	1,015	140	0	0	786	0	65	2,079
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lecale	3,002	77	879	131	0	0	740	0	60	1,887
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lisnacree	3,443	147	590	168	0	0	1,185	0	74	2,164
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	3,142	127	741	148	0	0	894	0	66	1,976
Newry, Mourne and Down	Murlough	2,896	120	535	138	0	0	962	0	65	1,820
Newry, Mourne and Down	Quoile	2,699	107	869	128	0	0	536	0	56	1,696
Newry, Mourne and Down	Rostrevor	3,375	96	910	147	0	0	900	0	68	2,121
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	789	25	179	36	0	0	239	0	16	495
Newry, Mourne and Down	Strangford	2,777	77	859	120	0	0	633	0	56	1,745
Newry, Mourne and Down	Tollymore	2,900	118	523	137	0	0	985	0	61	1,824
Newry, Mourne and Down	Warrenpoint	3,504	93	847	154	0	0	1,038	0	70	2,202
	Total	79,177	2,906	16,321	5,944	0	0	22,805	0	1,779	49,755

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.