Dumfries and Galloway: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dumfries and Galloway: Overview

 Prediction: SNP gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Alister Jack  (CON)
County/Area: Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)
Electorate: 74,580
Turnout: 69.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,67844.1%39.5%
SNP20,87340.6%47.0%
LAB4,7459.2%9.6%
LIB3,1336.1%3.4%
OTH00.0%0.6%
CON Majority1,8053.5%Pred Maj 7.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
33%
SNP
67%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Dumfries and Galloway : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dumfries and Galloway constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position17° Left23° Left
National Position4° Glo15° Glo
Social Position5° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %46%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age52.248.648.3
ABC1 Class39%50%54%

Dumfries and Galloway ranks #488 for "Leave", #576 for "Right", #474 for "National" and #518 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dumfries and Galloway: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dumfries and Galloway

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dumfries and Galloway.

Dumfries and GallowayActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAbbey8,284CONSNP2,238639209002,5900355,711
Dumfries and GallowayCastle Douglas and Crocketford7,562CONSNP2,330296163002,3960305,215
Dumfries and GallowayDee and Glenkens8,234CONCON2,648272182002,5420335,677
Dumfries and GallowayLochar9,513CONSNP2,695560244003,0220406,561
Dumfries and GallowayMid Galloway and Wigtown West10,658CONSNP3,235479204003,3920417,351
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale1,442CONSNP343154310045906993
Dumfries and GallowayNith7,395SNPSNP1,628716198002,5250325,099
Dumfries and GallowayNorth West Dumfries10,089SNPSNP1,9091,152260003,5930436,957
Dumfries and GallowayStranraer and the Rhins11,404CONSNP3,277661248003,6320457,863
 Total74,581CONSNP20,3034,9291,7390024,151030551,427

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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