|MP at 2019:||Alister Jack (CON)|
|County/Area:||Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)|
|Chance of winning|
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dumfries and Galloway constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.
The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
|Party Winner 2019||CON||SNP||CON|
|Party Winner 2017||CON||SNP||CON|
|Party Winner 2015||SNP||SNP||CON|
|Economic Position||17° Left||23° Left||0°|
|National Position||4° Glo||15° Glo||0°|
|Social Position||5° Lib||13° Lib||0°|
|EU Leave %||46%||38%||52%|
|Average House Price||£147,267||£174,688||£309,875|
Dumfries and Galloway ranks #488 for "Leave", #576 for "Right", #474 for "National" and #518 for "Social" out of 650 seats.
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
|Topic||Cat 1||Cat 2||Cat 3||Cat 4||Cat 5|
|Economic Position||Very Left||Left||Centrist||Right||Very Right|
|National Position||Very Global||Global||Centrist||National||Very Nat|
|Social Position||Very Lib||Liberal||Moderate||Conservative||Very Cons|
|EU Leave %||Very Remain||Remain||Balanced||Leave||Very Leave|
|Census||Very Low||Low||Medium||High||Very High|
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
|Definition / Included Census Categories|
|Party Winner||–||Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus|
|Economic Position||–||Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|National Position||–||National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|Social Position||–||Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|Tribe||–||Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.|
|EU Leave %||–||EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate|
|British Identity||National Identity (KS202)||Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British|
|Good Health||Health (KS301)||Those answering 'Very Good Health'|
|UK Born||Country of Birth (QS203)||Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other|
|Good Education||Highest level of Qualification (QS501)||Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)|
|Good Job||Occupation (QS606)||Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)|
|High SEC||NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)||National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).|
|Average Age||Age (QS103)||Average age of adults (18 years and above)|
|ABC1 Class||Approximated Social Grade (QS611)||Approximated social grades A, B and C1|
|Average House Price||–||Average residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance|
This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dumfries and Galloway.
|Dumfries and Galloway||Actual||Predicted Results|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Abbey||8,380||CON||SNP||2,149||962||281||0||0||2,256||0||132||5,780|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Castle Douglas and Crocketford||7,553||CON||CON||2,219||440||244||0||0||2,188||0||118||5,209|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Dee and Glenkens||8,205||CON||CON||2,500||437||278||0||0||2,315||0||129||5,659|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Lochar||9,599||CON||SNP||2,592||924||331||0||0||2,622||0||152||6,621|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Mid Galloway and Wigtown West||10,590||CON||SNP||3,081||675||296||0||0||3,090||0||162||7,304|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Mid and Upper Nithsdale||1,407||CON||SNP||314||205||40||0||0||390||0||22||971|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Nith||7,454||SNP||SNP||1,527||1,009||273||0||0||2,213||0||119||5,141|
|Dumfries and Galloway||North West Dumfries||10,117||SNP||SNP||1,788||1,536||343||0||0||3,151||0||159||6,977|
|Dumfries and Galloway||Stranraer and the Rhins||11,275||CON||SNP||3,104||872||345||0||0||3,279||0||174||7,774|
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2022 (including four new unitary authorities with shadow wards).
© 2022 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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