Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: David Mundell  (CON)
County/Area: Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)
Electorate: 68,330
Turnout: 71.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON22,61146.0%49.3%
SNP18,83038.3%34.9%
LAB4,1728.5%9.1%
LIB3,5407.2%6.7%
CON Majority3,7817.7%Pred Maj 14.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
74%
SNP
25%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015CONSNPCON
Economic Position8° Left23° Left
National Position3° Glo15° Glo
Social Position4° Lib13° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %44%38%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC56%55%51%
Average Age52.648.748.5
ABC1 Class43%50%54%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale ranks #503 for "Leave", #471 for "Right", #459 for "National" and #502 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
OTH
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale20121,50587746200421686
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North20121,74784538306157240
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South20129541,65095900568416
Dumfries and GallowayLochar20121,2921,6980001,1900
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale20121,2352,024019808920
Dumfries and GallowayNith20121,0081,878000784491
Scottish BordersTweeddale East201292957161400990645
Scottish BordersTweeddale West20128853361,25300780333
South LanarkshireClydesdale East20121,524727002681,6810
South LanarkshireClydesdale South20124872,024019901,9380

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,8483,688479544002,372007,083
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,4063,965428499002,594007,486
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,5333,4641,178722002,932008,296
Dumfries and GallowayLochar2,06461814710500614001,484
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,9422,124678287001,904004,993
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,26762724711900639001,632
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,3932,461243425002,190005,319
Scottish BordersTweeddale West7,6822,598217474002,237005,526
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,4222,101228208002,083004,620
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,773964327158001,265002,714
 Total68,33022,6104,1723,5410018,8300049,153

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddalePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,8483,923526504002,129007,082
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,4064,209477463002,337007,486
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,5333,7451,234669002,647008,295
Dumfries and GallowayLochar2,0646671579700563001,484
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,9422,284710266001,733004,993
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,26768125811000583001,632
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,3932,639279394002,008005,320
Scottish BordersTweeddale West7,6822,785254439002,047005,525
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,4222,246257193001,925004,621
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,7731,051345146001,172002,714
 Total68,33024,2304,4973,2810017,1440049,152

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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