Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Seat Details

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Overview

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2019:Liz Saville Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:44,362
Turnout:67.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
Plaid14,44748.3%51.8%
CON9,70732.4%16.6%
LAB3,99813.4%22.4%
Reform1,7765.9%7.3%
LIB00.0%1.0%
Green00.0%1.0%
Plaid Majority4,74015.8%29.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Plaid
98%
CON
0%
LAB
2%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position16° Left8° Left
National Position3° Glo
Social Position4° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %46%53%52%
Average Age55.451.149.5
Good Education49%49%49%
Employed52%53%58%
Homeowner69%67%63%
Car owner85%81%77%
Married46%44%45%
Ethnic White98%94%83%
Christian54%47%50%
ABC1 Class45%52%56%
Gross Household Income£32,428£36,386£42,397
Deprivation51%54%52%
Average House Price£200,203£193,404£313,528

Dwyfor Meirionnydd ranks #480 for "Leave", #571 for "Economic Right Position", #456 for "National Position" and #508 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dwyfor Meirionnydd

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Dwyfor MeirionnyddActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdyfi (Aberdovey)824PlaidPlaid142152851825900620
GwyneddAbererch1,018PlaidPlaid118167757838900746
GwyneddAbermaw (Barmouth)1,440PlaidPlaid11331096911519001,031
GwyneddAbersoch with Llanengan856CONPlaid156139751729100651
GwyneddArthog and Llangelynnin1,363PlaidPlaid20424611841142000976
GwyneddBala1,360PlaidPlaid118195860761000998
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,356PlaidPlaid98207858861800997
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth, Ganllwyd and Llanelltyd1,166PlaidPlaid156158862850600898
GwyneddBro Dysynni1,010PlaidPlaid143168859734200727
GwyneddClynnog746PlaidPlaid88145637626600548
GwyneddCorris and Mawddwy1,052PlaidPlaid141193958935800768
GwyneddCriccieth1,281PlaidPlaid20722811751140400936
GwyneddDe Dollgellau (Dolgellau South)947PlaidPlaid91143645640300694
GwyneddDe Pwllheli (Pwllheli South)1,282PlaidPlaid145224869944100896
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen1,061PlaidPlaid81170648646300774
GwyneddDolbenmaen978PlaidPlaid152161961831700708
GwyneddDwyrain Porthmadog (Porthmadog East)1,071PlaidPlaid101175653843300776
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,205PlaidPlaid164201972942000875
GwyneddEfailnewydd and Buan1,044PlaidPlaid154186866935100774
GwyneddGlaslyn1,254PlaidPlaid136190861952900933
GwyneddGogledd Dolgellau (Dolgellau North)1,023PlaidPlaid113154750743500766
GwyneddGogledd Pwllheli (Pwllheli North)1,616PlaidPlaid14826597710645001,154
GwyneddGorllewin Porthmadog (Porthmadog West)1,281PlaidPlaid191169964854800989
GwyneddGorllewin Tywyn (Tywyn West)1,196CONPlaid1662529691034000846
GwyneddHarlech and Llanbedr2,240PlaidPlaid2873801711717870001,688
GwyneddLlanbedrog with Mynytho1,299CONPlaid22122711841241900974
GwyneddLlandderfel1,027PlaidPlaid121133653644100760
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn847PlaidPlaid95112642538200642
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,538PlaidPlaid194222118111653001,172
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn and Tudweiliog1,579PlaidPlaid209235118912621001,177
GwyneddMorfa Tywyn1,147PlaidPlaid141263967930300792
GwyneddNefyn1,013PlaidPlaid108160756740900747
GwyneddPen draw Llyn1,504PlaidPlaid211250119312555001,132
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,459PlaidPlaid1352109679661001,091
GwyneddTeigl1,035PlaidPlaid100148645647000775
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,072PlaidPlaid132175860737400756
GwyneddYr Eifl1,178PlaidPlaid124200865944700853
 Total44,368PlaidPlaid5,4047,3133142,37532216,9120032,640

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc3856)