Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Seat Details

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Overview

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2019:Liz Saville Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:44,362
Turnout:67.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
Plaid14,44748.3%48.3%
CON9,70732.4%26.0%
LAB3,99813.4%14.9%
Reform1,7765.9%6.3%
Green00.0%3.2%
OTH00.0%1.4%
Plaid Majority4,74015.8%22.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
Plaid
90%
CON
9%
LAB
1%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position16° Left8° Left
National Position3° Glo
Social Position4° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity22%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born97%94%87%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age54.049.548.3
ABC1 Class42%48%54%
Average House Price£200,203£194,381£309,875

Dwyfor Meirionnydd ranks #480 for "Leave", #571 for "Right", #456 for "National" and #508 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dwyfor Meirionnydd

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Dwyfor MeirionnyddActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron695PlaidPlaid122530291524407470
GwyneddAberdovey902CONPlaid212830412024508609
GwyneddAbererch981PlaidPlaid144840402136409662
GwyneddAbermaw1,583PlaidPlaid188282056354930151,069
GwyneddAbersoch516CONPlaid132400231113705348
GwyneddBala1,406PlaidPlaid18014205731526013949
GwyneddBotwnnog730PlaidPlaid156710361620607492
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,229PlaidPlaid14014804827455011829
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,126PlaidPlaid1937204025418010758
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel768PlaidPlaid157740371722707519
GwyneddClynnog732PlaidPlaid165700361620107495
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy1,018PlaidPlaid2051060452229809685
GwyneddCriccieth1,274PlaidPlaid29411505928353012861
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen775PlaidPlaid94990321727407523
GwyneddDolbenmaen896PlaidPlaid196840422025508605
GwyneddDolgellau North948PlaidPlaid150840372134009641
GwyneddDolgellau South1,067PlaidPlaid15610504123384010719
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,163PlaidPlaid21611205025370011784
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan1,021PlaidPlaid2149005022303010689
GwyneddHarlech1,508PlaidPlaid277168070334550141,017
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,181PlaidPlaid16911704926426011798
GwyneddLlanbedr764PlaidPlaid133900291724107517
GwyneddLlanbedrog705CONPlaid172610331518807476
GwyneddLlandderfel1,129PlaidPlaid1947404525412011761
GwyneddLlanengan843PlaidPlaid177600361826908568
GwyneddLlangelynin1,617PlaidPlaid359165077354390151,090
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn683PlaidPlaid104470271526106460
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,539PlaidPlaid257107061345650141,038
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn940PlaidPlaid168660392033209634
GwyneddNefyn998PlaidPlaid146900412236509673
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,817PlaidPlaid254159069406870171,226
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,172PlaidPlaid16312205026420011792
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,322PlaidPlaid2498404929469012892
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog928PlaidPlaid154890372031709626
GwyneddPwllheli North1,520PlaidPlaid225170062335200141,024
GwyneddPwllheli South1,303PlaidPlaid26115006228365012878
GwyneddTeigl1,348PlaidPlaid17713605329502013910
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,083PlaidPlaid2069904624346010731
GwyneddTudweiliog665PlaidPlaid128490291422106447
GwyneddTywyn2,464CONPlaid4954260109545550231,662
 Total44,359PlaidPlaid7,7824,44301,87296914,448041329,927

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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