Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Overview

 Prediction: Plaid hold 

MP at 2019: Liz Saville Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 44,362
Turnout: 67.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid14,44748.3%48.3%
CON9,70732.4%31.2%
LAB3,99813.4%15.4%
Brexit1,7765.9%3.9%
Green00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%0.9%
Plaid Majority4,74015.8%Pred Maj 17.1%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
82%
CON
16%
LAB
1%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Dwyfor Meirionnydd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2017PlaidLABCON
Party Winner 2015PlaidLABCON
Economic Position16° Left8° Left
National Position3° Glo
Social Position4° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity22%26%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born97%94%87%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age54.049.548.3
ABC1 Class42%48%54%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd ranks #480 for "Leave", #571 for "Right", #456 for "National" and #508 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Dwyfor Meirionnydd

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Dwyfor MeirionnyddActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron728PlaidPlaid15358019225605493
GwyneddAberdovey885CONPlaid23885025224006596
GwyneddAbererch989PlaidPlaid18087025236706667
GwyneddAbermaw1,563PlaidPlaid2402820344486091,055
GwyneddAbersoch529CONCON15344015114004357
GwyneddBala1,384PlaidPlaid225144034351909934
GwyneddBotwnnog746PlaidPlaid18677023221005503
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,253PlaidPlaid185156030346308845
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,129PlaidPlaid23376025341907763
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel763PlaidPlaid18277023222505514
GwyneddClynnog729PlaidPlaid19073022220005492
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy975PlaidPlaid231106027228606658
GwyneddCriccieth1,316PlaidPlaid349125038336509889
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen754PlaidPlaid11898019226705509
GwyneddDolbenmaen942PlaidPlaid23993027226706634
GwyneddDolgellau North914PlaidPlaid17684021232805616
GwyneddDolgellau South1,064PlaidPlaid192108025238406717
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,206PlaidPlaid266121032338408814
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan1,005PlaidPlaid24594031329807678
GwyneddHarlech1,490PlaidPlaid32517404344490101,005
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,164PlaidPlaid206120029342007785
GwyneddLlanbedr799PlaidPlaid16695018225305539
GwyneddLlanbedrog770CONCON21469021220605517
GwyneddLlandderfel1,140PlaidPlaid23579029341707770
GwyneddLlanengan841PlaidPlaid20763022226905568
GwyneddLlangelynin1,581PlaidPlaid40517004744300111,067
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn714PlaidPlaid13551018227204482
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,519PlaidPlaid3071090374558091,024
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn915PlaidPlaid19667023232406618
GwyneddNefyn1,002PlaidPlaid18193025236706674
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,767PlaidPlaid30916104146670111,193
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,176PlaidPlaid204127030342207793
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,271PlaidPlaid28384029345207858
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog958PlaidPlaid19296023232806647
GwyneddPwllheli North1,528PlaidPlaid28017703845220101,031
GwyneddPwllheli South1,300PlaidPlaid306156038336409876
GwyneddTeigl1,332PlaidPlaid221138032349608898
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,127PlaidPlaid253107030336107761
GwyneddTudweiliog671PlaidPlaid15353019222205454
GwyneddTywyn2,421CONCON56843006765460161,633
 Total44,360PlaidPlaid9,3274,60701,15410814,449028229,927

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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