Epping Forest: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Epping Forest: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Eleanor Laing  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 74,305
Turnout: 67.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,36464.4%63.1%
LAB10,19120.3%24.3%
LIB5,38710.7%5.4%
Green1,9753.9%4.7%
OTH3510.7%2.6%
CON Majority22,17344.1%Pred Maj 38.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Epping Forest : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Epping Forest constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right9° Right
National Position12° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %62%56%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born90%89%87%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job62%52%51%
High SEC59%53%51%
Average Age49.749.348.3
ABC1 Class62%55%54%

Epping Forest ranks #120 for "Leave", #62 for "Right", #104 for "National" and #92 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Epping Forest: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Epping Forest

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Epping Forest.

Epping ForestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing1,769CONCON885170350750321,197
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East3,490CONCON1,43356410802120442,361
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West5,268CONCON2,179770344014301303,566
Epping ForestChigwell Row1,778CONCON805226830610301,205
Epping ForestChigwell Village3,450CONCON1,7583905701020282,335
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall4,936CONCON1,958751370013101293,339
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common5,343CONCON2,195811337013401383,615
Epping ForestGrange Hill4,895CONCON2,0021,104820870393,314
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton3,257CONCON1,268731840710492,203
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway3,294CONCON1,359648900790522,228
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead3,075CONCON1,213665810760452,080
Epping ForestLoughton Forest3,383CONCON1,627433940830522,289
Epping ForestLoughton Roding3,507CONCON1,5265881080870632,372
Epping ForestLoughton St John's3,493CONCON1,654472960840572,363
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's3,812CONCON1,7545591060910682,578
Epping ForestTheydon Bois3,307CONCON1,5184111670730692,238
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach2,022CONCON948258850390371,367
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane4,484CONCON1,75186211702220793,031
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East3,168CONCON1,34449610901420532,144
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster3,372CONCON1,2567387501530582,280
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West3,200CONCON1,2955597701950402,166
 Total74,303CONCON31,72812,2062,70502,34001,29250,271

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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