Erith and Thamesmead: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Erith and Thamesmead: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Abena Oppong-Asare  (LAB)
County/Area: Bexley (London)
Electorate: 65,399
Turnout: 63.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB19,88248.0%51.6%
CON16,12439.0%37.6%
Brexit2,2465.4%3.5%
LIB1,9844.8%2.2%
Green8762.1%2.8%
OTH2720.7%2.3%
LAB Majority3,7589.1%Pred Maj 14.0%
Chance of
winning
LAB
81%
CON
19%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Erith and Thamesmead : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Erith and Thamesmead constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left2° Left
National Position1° Nat16° Glo
Social Position1° Con5° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%40%52%
British Identity32%38%29%
Good Health50%51%48%
UK Born69%63%87%
Good Education35%48%39%
Good Job46%61%51%
High SEC45%55%51%
Average Age44.443.948.3
ABC1 Class48%62%54%

Erith and Thamesmead ranks #222 for "Leave", #442 for "Right", #374 for "National" and #332 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Erith and Thamesmead: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Erith and Thamesmead

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Erith and Thamesmead.

Erith and ThamesmeadActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BexleyBelvedere10,295CONLAB2,8963,01911723313801106,513
BexleyBexleyheath95CONCON40141310160
BexleyErith5,962LABLAB1,5651,85659137780773,772
BexleyNorthumberland Heath6,183CONCON2,1251,37581154780983,911
BexleySlade Green and Northend44LABLAB11130110026
BexleyThamesmead East8,613LABLAB1,5673,3559517212401365,449
BexleyWest Heath6,022CONCON2,43398278165720793,809
GreenwichAbbey Wood9,164LABLAB1,6463,42718220019101545,800
GreenwichPlumstead9,190LABLAB1,6953,44611919923001265,815
GreenwichThamesmead Moorings9,831LABLAB1,5753,85719619522601726,221
 Total65,399LABLAB15,55321,3449281,4591,139095341,376

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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