Falkirk: Seat Details

Falkirk: Overview

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:Johnny McNally  (SNP)
County/Area:Central (Scotland)
Electorate:84,472
Turnout:66.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SNP29,35152.5%54.8%
CON14,40325.8%24.0%
LAB6,24311.2%11.7%
LIB3,9907.1%3.9%
Green1,8853.4%3.8%
OTH00.0%1.7%
SNP Majority14,94826.8%30.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SNP
97%
CON
3%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Falkirk : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Falkirk constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position26° Left23° Left
National Position11° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC54%55%51%
Average Age48.948.648.3
ABC1 Class48%50%54%
Average House Price£149,874£174,688£309,875

Falkirk ranks #518 for "Leave", #628 for "Right", #531 for "National" and #585 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Falkirk: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Falkirk

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Falkirk.

FalkirkActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FalkirkBonnybridge and Larbert12,672SNPSNP2,38965433203594,50201458,381
FalkirkCarse, Kinnaird and Tryst16,476SNPSNP2,8001,25341404335,813018310,896
FalkirkDenny and Banknock14,715SNPSNP1,9591,20735802755,77401619,734
FalkirkFalkirk North16,399SNPSNP1,5521,81942403956,485017110,846
FalkirkFalkirk South12,970SNPSNP2,3491,02337503924,28301588,580
FalkirkLower Braes8,590SNPSNP1,87540923302062,85801005,681
FalkirkUpper Braes2,650SNPSNP498195650639040291,754
 Total84,472SNPSNP13,4226,5602,20102,12330,619094755,872

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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