Finchley and Golders Green: Seat Details

Finchley and Golders Green: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Mike Freer  (CON)
County/Area:Barnet (London)
Electorate:77,573
Turnout:71.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON24,16243.8%36.9%
LIB17,60031.9%24.7%
LAB13,34724.2%27.5%
Reform00.0%0.7%
Green00.0%7.1%
OTH00.0%3.1%
CON Majority6,56211.9%9.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
63%
LIB
13%
LAB
24%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Finchley and Golders Green : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Finchley and Golders Green constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right2° Left
National Position23° Glo16° Glo
Social Position6° Lib5° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %33%40%52%
British Identity39%38%29%
Good Health53%51%48%
UK Born58%63%87%
Good Education56%48%39%
Good Job70%61%51%
High SEC65%55%51%
Average Age45.743.948.3
ABC1 Class71%62%54%
Average House Price£882,299£630,920£309,875

Finchley and Golders Green ranks #600 for "Leave", #230 for "Right", #605 for "National" and #532 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Finchley and Golders Green: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Finchley and Golders Green

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Finchley and Golders Green.

Finchley and Golders GreenActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BarnetChilds Hill11,829CONCON2,6912,5522,2446060002578,404
BarnetEast Finchley11,067LABLAB1,7093,1432,1515656102417,861
BarnetFinchley Church End10,942CONCON3,7861,2931,8475655502387,775
BarnetGarden Suburb10,709CONCON4,1348621,7825554302337,609
BarnetGolders Green10,736CONCON3,7961,3711,6295554502337,629
BarnetWest Finchley10,172CONLAB1,9752,6521,8115251602217,227
BarnetWoodhouse12,118LABLAB2,2403,2932,1366261502638,609
 Total77,573CONCON20,33115,16613,6003963,93501,68655,114

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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