Foyle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Foyle: Overview

 Prediction: SDLP hold 

MP at 2019: Colum Eastwood  (SDLP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 74,346
Turnout: 63.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SDLP26,88157.0%57.1%
SF9,77120.7%20.8%
DUP4,77210.1%10.2%
MIN2,0324.3%4.3%
OTH1,3322.8%2.6%
Alliance1,2672.7%2.7%
UUP1,0882.3%2.4%
SDLP Majority17,11036.3%Pred Maj 36.3%
Chance of
winning
SDLP
99%
SF
1%
DUP
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%

Foyle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Foyle constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %22%44%52%
British Identity19%40%29%
Good Health48%48%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age45.647.248.3
ABC1 Class41%46%53%

Foyle ranks #640 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Foyle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Foyle

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Foyle.

FoyleActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty2,713SDLPSDLP129695390515101621,721
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,564SDLPSDLP11850488056391561,627
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,292SDLPSDLP108854626034687531,453
Derry and StrabaneCaw2,852SDLPSDLP9999242581015336211,807
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,503SDLPSDLP118855045044992561,588
Derry and StrabaneClaudy77SDLPSDLP22682082149
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,800SDLPSDLP7989525365043429181,773
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,816SDLPSDLP12928539062599611,787
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,796SDLPSDLP12921529062098601,772
Derry and StrabaneCulmore3,127SDLPSDLP121,3865678029398601,983
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2,951SDLPSDLP981,02641980017445271,869
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,774SDLPSDLP8893737472023332201,756
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,809SDLPSDLP9997942480013042251,779
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2,867SDLPSDLP531,00731976027356351,819
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,623SDLPSDLP111,0104913043093571,663
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh2,800SDLPSDLP121,0265690497108661,774
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan2,895SDLPSDLP9697540878025018111,836
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,630SDLPSDLP9291839274011051321,669
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,450SDLPSDLP101,0134551030283511,555
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,849SDLPSDLP1059964508508653331,808
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,075SDLPSDLP131,21661860385117711,949
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,873SDLPSDLP121,1005690475104641,820
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,239SDLPSDLP131,33260470418113692,052
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,563SDLPSDLP11856499055392561,626
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge3,265SDLPSDLP141,30163410461118732,071
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,791SDLPSDLP596232524809436211,133
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,502SDLPSDLP11921478045789541,587
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,849SDLPSDLP5192522670045450311,807
 Total74,345SDLPSDLP1,10826,8984,7941,26809,7882,0331,24447,133

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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