Foyle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Foyle: Overview

 Prediction: SDLP hold 

MP at 2019: Colum Eastwood  (SDLP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 74,346
Turnout: 63.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SDLP26,88157.0%57.1%
SF9,77120.7%20.8%
DUP4,77210.1%10.2%
MIN2,0324.3%4.3%
OTH1,3322.8%2.6%
Alliance1,2672.7%2.7%
UUP1,0882.3%2.4%
SDLP Majority17,11036.3%Pred Maj 36.3%
Chance of
winning
SDLP
99%
SF
1%
DUP
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%

Foyle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Foyle constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %22%44%52%
British Identity19%40%29%
Good Health48%48%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age45.647.248.3
ABC1 Class41%46%53%

Foyle ranks #643 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Foyle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Foyle: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Foyle

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Foyle at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Foyle. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

FoyleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty20140523020579315
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell20140406000732278
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill201404020100439198
Derry and StrabaneCaw2014292243474540156149
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls20140392000637350
Derry and StrabaneClaudy201459319285310358105
Derry and StrabaneClondermot201413134819615037273
Derry and StrabaneCreggan20140413000721221
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South20140359000689221
Derry and StrabaneCulmore20140728073051670
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2014295214482150185155
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2014201289357440239136
Derry and StrabaneEglinton20141333334431050204125
Derry and StrabaneEnagh201451390350780375163
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs20140471070418188
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh20140483010615257
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan201422835933966024597
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin201426314145024098162
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank201405910520401189
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2014193212511880106142
Derry and StrabaneNorthland201405770750434444
Derry and StrabaneShantallow20140466020530161
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East201406410320585151
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain20140489000751197
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge201405540210555201
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk2014118221424350210151
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown20140452020460188
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2014101369200230426126

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

FoyleEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty3,078371,1474547054478551,953
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,609308073839062965461,654
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,365288863436041459431,500
Derry and StrabaneCaw3,156591,00457761014499572,001
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,543308223838057365451,611
Derry and StrabaneClaudy14051002008
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,6204799310641035474461,661
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,497297803637059561441,582
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,339277043435058458421,484
Derry and StrabaneCulmore3,123371,3564258036271531,979
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe3,1045695561350014395571,969
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,920551,04339755015792531,852
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,887551,03743559010390521,831
Derry and StrabaneEnagh3,026581,12326260026894541,919
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,352279453436034959431,493
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh3,056361,0804446060176551,938
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan3,078591,19534262014494551,951
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,6274881251745011581481,666
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,675331,1713949028869471,696
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,6905285550255010984481,705
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,320451,4135167037792602,105
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,611309613739047864461,655
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,176371,2664452047978562,012
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,650308713740059164471,680
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,997351,1564347049075531,899
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,57229500298280654928997
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,390289163436040059431,516
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,872521,0799147041287521,820
 Total74,3471,08926,8824,7711,26509,7702,0321,32847,137

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Foyle

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Foyle.

FoylePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty3,078381,1484647054578521,954
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,609318083939063065431,655
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,365298863536041559401,500
Derry and StrabaneCaw3,156601,00557861014599532,001
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,543318223938057465421,611
Derry and StrabaneClaudy14051002008
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,6204899410741035574431,662
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,497307803737059661411,582
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,339287043535058558391,484
Derry and StrabaneCulmore3,123381,3574358036371501,980
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe3,1045795661450014495531,969
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,920561,04439855015892501,853
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,887561,03843659010490491,832
Derry and StrabaneEnagh3,026591,12426360026994511,920
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,352289453536035059401,493
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh3,056371,0814546060276521,939
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan3,078601,19634362014594521,952
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,6274981351845011681451,667
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,675341,1724049028969441,697
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,6905385650355011084451,706
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,320461,4145267037892562,105
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,611319623839047964431,656
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,176381,2674552048078522,012
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,650318723840059264441,681
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,997361,1574447049175501,900
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,57229500298280654926995
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,390299163536040159401,516
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,872531,0809247041387491,821
 Total74,3471,11526,9024,7971,26509,7962,0321,24447,151

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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