Fylde: Seat Details

Fylde: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Mark Menzies  (CON)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:66,847
Turnout:69.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,43260.9%52.5%
LAB11,82125.3%29.9%
LIB3,7488.0%5.9%
Green1,7313.7%7.1%
OTH9272.0%4.5%
CON Majority16,61135.6%22.6%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Fylde : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Fylde constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Left
National Position6° Nat1° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job58%49%51%
High SEC61%48%51%
Average Age53.148.548.3
ABC1 Class62%50%54%
Average House Price£239,043£202,780£309,875

Fylde ranks #253 for "Leave", #211 for "Right", #240 for "National" and #254 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Fylde: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fylde

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fylde.

FyldeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FyldeAnsdell3,442CONCON1,52552611901420902,402
FyldeAshton3,637CONCON1,166711226029701392,539
FyldeCentral3,279CONCON9878948602340892,290
FyldeClifton3,332CONCON1,360590114013801242,326
FyldeElswick and Little Eccleston1,278CONCON47927240054047892
FyldeFairhaven3,444CONCON1,43552510702420932,402
FyldeFreckleton East2,409CONCON8325047501960761,683
FyldeFreckleton West2,186CONCON814477750910681,525
FyldeHeyhouses3,980CONCON1,49972627801760992,778
FyldeKilnhouse3,136CONCON1,01371823901410782,189
FyldeKirkham North3,441CONCON1,244757135014901172,402
FyldeKirkham South1,997CONCON669497670830801,396
FyldeMedlar-with-Wesham3,009CONCON1,011745112013101022,101
FyldeNewton and Treales2,489CONCON9415128301070961,739
FyldePark4,111CONCON1,764703121016101212,870
FyldeRibby-with-Wrea1,415CONCON62321140056060990
FyldeSingleton and Greenhalgh1,134CONCON46921029043041792
FyldeSt Johns3,614CONCON1,333762145016501172,522
FyldeSt Leonards3,516CONCON1,22181510102170992,453
FyldeStaining and Weeton2,432CONCON1,039458600910491,697
FyldeWarton and Westby4,607CONCON1,844887120017801863,215
PrestonIngol and Cottam2,674CONCON72168725501320721,867
PrestonLea and Larches2,284LABLAB5127821470990541,594
 Total66,846CONCON24,50113,9692,77403,32302,09746,664

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


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