Guildford: Seat Details

Guildford: Overview

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:Zöe Franklin  (LIB)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Electorate:70,734
Turnout:68.3%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LIB22,93747.5%47.5%
CON14,50830.0%30.0%
Reform4,3959.1%9.1%
LAB3,9318.1%8.1%
Green2,2684.7%4.7%
OTH2550.5%0.5%
LIB Majority8,42917.5%17.5%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LIB
100%
CON
0%
Reform
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Guildford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Guildford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position18° Right11° Right
National Position10° Glo3° Nat
Social Position7° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %41%52%52%
Average Age47.250.449.5
Good Education67%53%49%
Employed57%59%58%
Homeowner64%68%63%
Car owner84%84%77%
Married45%48%45%
Ethnic White84%86%83%
Christian51%50%50%
ABC1 Class74%62%56%
Gross Household Income£58,648£50,167£42,397
Deprivation42%48%52%
Average House Price£599,206£409,816£313,528

Guildford ranks #535 for "Leave", #13 for "Economic Right Position", #519 for "National Position" and #540 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Guildford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Guildford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Guildford.

GuildfordActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
GuildfordBellfields and Slyfield4,266LIBLIB
GuildfordBurpham4,745LIBLIB
GuildfordCastle6,994LIBLIB
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,886LIBLIB
GuildfordEffingham1,898LIBLIB
GuildfordMerrow6,876LIBLIB
GuildfordOnslow5,420LIBLIB
GuildfordSend and Lovelace5,291LIBLIB
GuildfordSt Nicolas2,162LIBLIB
GuildfordStoke5,509LIBLIB
GuildfordStoughton North4,142LIBLIB
GuildfordStoughton South4,307LIBLIB
GuildfordWestborough6,008LIBLIB
GuildfordWorplesdon6,231CONCON
 Total70,735LIBLIB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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