Guildford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Guildford: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Angela Richardson  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 77,729
Turnout: 75.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,31744.9%43.6%
LIB22,98039.2%28.2%
LAB4,5157.7%15.1%
MIN4,3567.4%7.4%
OTH4830.8%4.3%
Green00.0%1.3%
CON Majority3,3375.7%Pred Maj 15.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LIB
13%
LAB
3%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Guildford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Guildford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position18° Right11° Right
National Position8° Glo3° Nat
Social Position6° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %42%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born83%88%87%
Good Education56%43%39%
Good Job64%56%51%
High SEC65%57%51%
Average Age46.849.148.3
ABC1 Class70%60%54%

Guildford ranks #527 for "Leave", #15 for "Right", #507 for "National" and #525 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Guildford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Guildford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Guildford.

GuildfordActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordBurpham4,270LIBCON1,3434351,1500431251263,222
GuildfordChristchurch4,350CONCON1,5864006970443971583,282
GuildfordFriary and St Nicolas6,395LIBLIB1,5018881,8470653212024,824
GuildfordHoly Trinity5,771LIBCON1,6856291,2910594862054,355
GuildfordMerrow6,116CONCON2,1306701,1510623982044,615
GuildfordOnslow5,417LIBLIB1,3277541,5180552621714,087
GuildfordPilgrims2,076CONCON873138229021226791,566
GuildfordShalford4,335CONCON1,4763757640444491633,271
GuildfordStoke4,474CONCON1,4698647400451261313,375
GuildfordStoughton6,881LIBLIB1,7368922,0410702452075,191
GuildfordWestborough6,055LIBCON1,5561,0351,5120612221824,568
GuildfordWorplesdon6,458CONCON2,4396389280665712334,875
WaverleyAlfold, Cranleigh Rural and Ellens Green1,579CONCON76010917901677501,191
WaverleyBlackheath and Wonersh1,561CONCON72010923801649461,178
WaverleyCranleigh East5,440CONCON1,9914491,2970551531594,104
WaverleyCranleigh West3,365CONCON1,4112286150341461042,538
WaverleyEwhurst1,704CONCON83417515701753511,287
WaverleyShamley Green and Cranleigh North1,482CONCON7379817301551451,119
 Total77,729CONCON25,5748,88616,52707884,3572,51658,648

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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