Hackney North and Stoke Newington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hackney North and Stoke Newington: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Diane Abbott  (LAB)
County/Area: Hackney (London)
Electorate: 92,451
Turnout: 61.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB39,97270.3%73.5%
CON6,78411.9%11.1%
Green4,9898.8%9.3%
LIB4,2837.5%3.5%
Brexit6091.1%0.7%
OTH2270.4%1.9%
LAB Majority33,18858.4%Pred Maj 62.3%
Chance of
winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Hackney North and Stoke Newington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hackney North and Stoke Newington constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position21° Left2° Left
National Position35° Glo16° Glo
Social Position16° Lib5° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %21%40%52%
British Identity43%38%29%
Good Health54%51%48%
UK Born62%63%87%
Good Education51%48%39%
Good Job66%61%51%
High SEC54%55%51%
Average Age40.343.948.3
ABC1 Class61%62%54%

Hackney North and Stoke Newington ranks #645 for "Leave", #601 for "Right", #645 for "National" and #617 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hackney North and Stoke Newington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hackney North and Stoke Newington

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hackney North and Stoke Newington.

Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HackneyBrownswood6,834LABLAB3723,0522342741601034,204
HackneyCazenove9,418LABLAB6914,1023774341001695,792
HackneyClissold9,764LABLAB3654,5532653766601196,005
HackneyDalston6,857LABLAB2363,1201452758501034,216
HackneyHackney Central63LABLAB2321030038
HackneyHackney Downs9,524LABLAB3354,564121337280765,857
HackneyLea Bridge9,731LABLAB4074,737141345760905,985
HackneyLondon Fields1,004LABLAB4248322357011618
HackneyShacklewell6,300LABLAB1743,139123213560613,874
HackneySpringfield9,303LABLAB1,6743,50795593130725,720
HackneyStamford Hill West6,198LABLAB1,2542,15693442060593,812
HackneyStoke Newington10,459LABLAB3864,8692844270001526,433
HackneyWoodberry Down7,008LABLAB3783,456102252980504,309
 Total92,463LABLAB6,31641,7702,0033955,31401,06556,863

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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