Hampshire East: Seat Details

Hampshire East: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Damian Hinds  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:71,965
Turnout:69.6%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON18,50936.9%37.0%
LIB17,23434.4%34.4%
Reform6,47612.9%12.9%
LAB4,9679.9%9.9%
Green2,4044.8%4.8%
OTH5161.0%1.0%
CON Majority1,2752.5%2.5%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
100%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Hampshire East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hampshire East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right11° Right
National Position2° Nat3° Nat
Social Position1° Con1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %48%52%52%
Average Age53.850.449.5
Good Education58%53%49%
Employed58%59%58%
Homeowner75%68%63%
Car owner91%84%77%
Married55%48%45%
Ethnic White96%86%83%
Christian55%50%50%
ABC1 Class69%62%56%
Gross Household Income£53,924£50,167£42,397
Deprivation42%48%52%
Average House Price£462,122£409,816£313,528

Hampshire East ranks #452 for "Leave", #21 for "Economic Right Position", #339 for "National Position" and #347 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Hampshire East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hampshire East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hampshire East.

Hampshire EastActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred
Winner
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and The Candovers1,382CONCON
East HampshireAlton Amery1,965LIBLIB
East HampshireAlton Ashdell1,925LIBLIB
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke1,999LIBLIB
East HampshireAlton Holybourne2,283LIBLIB
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2,046LIBLIB
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2,241LIBLIB
East HampshireAlton Wooteys2,390CONCON
East HampshireBentworth and Froyle2,362CONCON
East HampshireBinsted, Bentley and Selborne4,914CONCON
East HampshireBuriton and East Meon2,199CONCON
East HampshireClanfield4,759CONCON
East HampshireFour Marks and Medstead6,568CONCON
East HampshireFroxfield, Sheet and Steep2,404LIBLIB
East HampshireHorndean Catherington2,153CONCON
East HampshireHorndean Downs2,601CONCON
East HampshireHorndean Kings and Blendworth4,101CONCON
East HampshireHorndean Murray2,236LIBLIB
East HampshireLiss4,974CONCON
East HampshirePetersfield Bell Hill2,161LIBLIB
East HampshirePetersfield Causeway2,177LIBLIB
East HampshirePetersfield Heath2,305CONCON
East HampshirePetersfield St Peter's4,814LIBLIB
East HampshireRopley, Hawkley and Hangers2,422CONCON
East HampshireRowlands Castle2,583CONCON
 Total71,964CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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