High Peak: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

High Peak: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Robert Largan  (CON)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 74,343
Turnout: 72.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON24,84445.9%44.6%
LAB24,25444.8%47.3%
LIB2,7505.1%2.9%
Brexit1,1772.2%1.4%
Green1,1482.1%2.6%
OTH00.0%1.2%
CON Majority5901.1%Pred Maj 2.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
44%
LAB
56%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

High Peak : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the High Peak constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right4° Right
National Position1° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%45%48%
UK Born96%90%87%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job51%48%51%
High SEC52%47%51%
Average Age50.048.948.3
ABC1 Class53%50%54%

High Peak ranks #406 for "Leave", #305 for "Right", #359 for "National" and #392 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

High Peak: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for High Peak

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of High Peak.

High PeakActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
High PeakBarms1,418LABLAB400570151228091,034
High PeakBlackbrook3,650CONCON1,41797711630830382,661
High PeakBurbage1,649CONCON6145072413320111,201
High PeakBuxton Central3,061LABLAB7431,3374720650212,233
High PeakChapel East1,742CONCON6165563816310151,272
High PeakChapel West4,002CONCON1,5201,1748733720332,919
High PeakCorbar3,284CONCON1,21592712025720372,396
High PeakCote Heath3,151LABLAB1,0281,1632929290192,297
High PeakDinting1,934CONCON7445495013370171,410
High PeakGamesley1,757LABLAB3508889169091,281
High PeakHadfield North1,770LABLAB4567661714280101,291
High PeakHadfield South3,438LABLAB9091,3626083600342,508
High PeakHayfield1,724CONCON5905475412380171,258
High PeakHope Valley3,267CONCON1,3738167523690272,383
High PeakHoward Town3,657LABLAB8291,6267828770302,668
High PeakLimestone Peak1,745CONCON7044961419290101,272
High PeakNew Mills East3,191LABLAB8201,2598075560362,326
High PeakNew Mills West3,482LABLAB9751,30011227890362,539
High PeakOld Glossop3,850CONCON1,3801,1959928730352,810
High PeakPadfield1,878LABLAB5557312313380121,372
High PeakSett1,643CONCON6025132510370111,198
High PeakSimmondley3,503CONCON1,3579229675660402,556
High PeakSt John's1,603CONCON6634361331140121,169
High PeakStone Bench3,220LABLAB7851,4055036490242,349
High PeakTemple1,858CONCON7235442812360131,356
High PeakTintwistle1,644LABLAB5056291614270101,201
High PeakWhaley Bridge5,357CONCON1,8671,641179421220573,908
High PeakWhitfield1,787LABLAB4207893615290141,303
 Total74,265CONLAB24,16025,6251,5907641,395063754,171

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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