Lagan Valley: Seat Details

Lagan Valley: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:75,735
Turnout:60.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP19,58643.1%43.2%
Alliance13,08728.8%28.8%
UUP8,60619.0%19.0%
SDLP1,7583.9%3.9%
OTH1,2702.8%2.6%
SF1,0982.4%2.5%
DUP Majority6,49914.3%14.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
84%
Alliance
14%
UUP
2%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%

Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity56%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born94%93%87%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job55%47%51%
High SEC67%57%51%
Average Age48.347.248.3
ABC1 Class56%46%53%
Average House Price£180,082£148,749£305,492

Lagan Valley ranks #332 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Lagan Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lagan Valley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lagan Valley.

Lagan ValleyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney65DUPDUP711811000239
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,318DUPDUP2955087961802901191,990
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,601DUPDUP246466864250640921,559
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,167DUPDUP3215086550804901061,899
BelfastBelvoir329SDLPDUP1010887101107197
BelfastDunmurry888SFAlliance2938186190043047533
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,742DUPDUP247557504920880121,644
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,352DUPDUP241665944170100831,411
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,370DUPDUP2975167937509091,420
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,349DUPDUP3227490457001501242,009
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,386DUPDUP33145657378090101,430
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,815AllianceAlliance3699053457701020141,686
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,436DUPDUP31250730349090101,460
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,303DUPDUP26965550477090101,380
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,259DUPDUP328654913840750101,353
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,553DUPDUP353526284040820111,530
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,733DUPDUP320437904640100111,638
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,610DUPDUP374726204760100121,564
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,805DUPDUP2568475247201301051,682
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,441DUPDUP35969644370090101,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,125DUPDUP183495933570100831,275
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,460DUPDUP362326463820410101,473
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,335DUPDUP226676393730100851,400
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,927DUPDUP291338594800740171,754
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,626DUPDUP340775644920880121,573
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,302DUPDUP33349576401090101,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,636DUPDUP348815985300110121,580
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,541DUPDUP2006671442601301051,524
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,342DUPDUP3234965236109091,403
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford369DUPDUP30101006201306221
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,630DUPDUP368746194400620111,574
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,789DUPDUP32110597373501210162,271
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward135SFAlliance1252728060381
 Total75,739DUPDUP8,6231,77319,60513,09501,11301,18345,392

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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