Lagan Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lagan Valley: Overview

 Predicted winner: DUP 
 Acual winner: DUP 

MP at 2019: Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,735
Turnout: 60.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP19,58643.1%51.2%
Alliance13,08728.8%14.8%
UUP8,60619.0%17.6%
SDLP1,7583.9%8.9%
OTH1,2702.8%5.1%
SF1,0982.4%2.4%
DUP Majority6,49914.3%Pred Maj 33.6%
Chance of
winning
DUP
99%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
SF
0%

Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity56%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job55%47%51%
High SEC67%57%51%
Average Age48.347.248.4
ABC1 Class56%45%53%

Lagan Valley ranks #332 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lagan Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Lagan Valley: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Lagan Valley

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Lagan Valley at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Lagan Valley. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Lagan ValleyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney201453446681101024229
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore201447470662143043296
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha201450889642810118236
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly20144926563383071223
BelfastBelvoir201418624860725230163386
BelfastDunmurry20142172860207099294
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry20142609863510709494
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2014172734578126085
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2014213052912100244
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss20141916265899300187
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris20142551140367130360
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy20141591613701550165225
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2014233062511300308
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2014233049919300189
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill201418587353100074160
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden201415531452880102317
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2014204063214700386
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough201434651391112280210
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore20141538858277250171
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan20143233940664130261
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley20141135152668210197
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg20141711245786027296
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey20141367548451160125
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry201431558776108060144
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave201413587351126079211
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze20143072537790210233
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2014352104419159440287
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren20141097463054190261
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2014283054511700182
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford20141489138841015564
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park201422087496156045233
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain2014317175751160012675
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2014206292276134035694

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Lagan ValleyEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney781421712010248
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,364523707595700370572,016
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,609433615663930670441,564
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,128537667084580540521,875
BelfastBelvoir2772210536601005166
BelfastDunmurry9508035178223035018569
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,685270687124480670441,609
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,334226586534100140391,400
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,160222406163700130341,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,207280691,0064970200511,923
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,278336445743550170401,366
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,97626110157268601100551,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,497250477523930160391,497
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,173229405334530120351,302
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,307246655004640670411,383
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,7562576076142801020451,653
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,671240517954570170421,602
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,338412494584280150401,402
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,862238718814600180481,716
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,273403465143450150391,362
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,549197568433760160411,529
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,528249507444020300411,516
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,322201597233560150391,393
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry3,049325638924540460481,828
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,380213685175120750411,426
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,160377414673600130371,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,803410705325990180511,680
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,998216711,0334100190491,798
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,200272405863730120361,319
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford3603411945801306216
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,979295747116100450511,786
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,346327968116290880572,008
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward1381362531050383
 Total75,7358,6081,75819,58613,08601,10201,27045,410

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lagan Valley

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lagan Valley.

Lagan ValleyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney78155240010348
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,3645571991,095004401212,016
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,60945715079800720881,565
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,128565170978005901031,875
BelfastBelvoir2772625920011012166
BelfastDunmurry95093863090038043569
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,68529717097600720941,609
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,33425115189500190851,401
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,16024412483400170751,294
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,2073101821,299002601071,924
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,27835712578300210801,366
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,9763022579760011801321,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,49727413698400210831,498
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,17325614380000170861,302
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,30727417077300720931,382
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,7562831571,013001070931,653
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,6712671551,06400220931,601
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,33843814671000200881,402
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,8622661751,15200230991,715
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,27342412471700190781,362
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,5492201411,06500200831,529
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,52827314198100350861,516
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,32222214093300190791,393
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry3,0493521661,16000510991,828
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,38024418481900810981,426
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,16039912367900170771,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,803446206885002501181,680
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,9982411641,27500240951,799
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,20029412580600160781,319
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford36037241280014012215
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,9793322121,070005201191,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,3463652391,182009501272,008
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward1381513430050682
 Total75,7359,3964,72827,298001,25302,73345,408

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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