Lewes: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Lewes: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Maria Caulfield  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 71,503
Turnout: 76.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,26847.9%46.6%
LIB23,81143.4%32.4%
LAB3,2065.8%13.3%
Green1,4532.6%4.0%
OTH1130.2%3.7%
CON Majority2,4574.5%Pred Maj 14.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
83%
LIB
17%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Lewes : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Lewes constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right11° Right
National Position1° Glo3° Nat
Social Position3° Lib1° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health45%49%48%
UK Born93%88%87%
Good Education43%43%39%
Good Job56%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age53.849.148.3
ABC1 Class60%60%54%

Lewes ranks #482 for "Leave", #261 for "Right", #416 for "National" and #495 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lewes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Lewes

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Lewes.

LewesActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LewesChailey, Barcombe and Hamsey4,081CONCON1,767348779011901173,130
LewesDitchling and Westmeston2,052CONCON8501294850510591,574
LewesKingston1,627LIBLIB5021315150540471,249
LewesLewes Bridge3,950LIBLIB1,0285331,210015401063,031
LewesLewes Castle3,128LIBLIB79351188901170892,399
LewesLewes Priory6,080LIBCON1,7987441,675027101784,666
LewesNewhaven North3,794LIBCON1,2244271,024012301132,911
LewesNewhaven South5,024LIBLIB1,2766581,636014901363,855
LewesNewick2,057CONCON9601563460550611,578
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer5,060CONCON1,8654101,295017401373,881
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John1,816LIBLIB5481256160540491,392
LewesSeaford Central3,979LIBCON1,2585061,055012501073,051
LewesSeaford East3,896CONCON1,646377745010601142,988
LewesSeaford North4,118CONCON1,525419989011501113,159
LewesSeaford South3,631CONCON1,28133696201090982,786
LewesSeaford West3,864CONCON1,702368685010301072,965
LewesWivelsfield2,125CONCON9571464020620611,628
WealdenArlington1,378CONCON630942540380421,058
WealdenPolegate Central2,034CONCON9871583220370551,559
WealdenPolegate North3,114CONCON1,1223567560620932,389
WealdenPolegate South and Willingdon Watermill2,056CONCON7711895150410621,578
WealdenSouth Downs2,640CONCON1,0831726220710762,024
 Total71,504CONCON25,5737,29317,77702,19002,01854,851

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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