Livingston: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Livingston: Overview

 Predicted winner: SNP 
 Acual winner: SNP 

MP at 2019: Hannah Bardell  (SNP)
County/Area: Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate: 82,285
Turnout: 66.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP25,61746.9%45.6%
CON12,18222.3%24.3%
LAB11,91521.8%23.3%
LIB3,4576.3%6.0%
Green1,4212.6%0.8%
SNP Majority13,43524.6%Pred Maj 21.2%
Chance of
winning
SNP
78%
CON
12%
LAB
10%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Livingston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Livingston constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position26° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position13° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %43%38%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health53%52%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age47.148.748.5
ABC1 Class48%50%54%

Livingston ranks #516 for "Leave", #629 for "Right", #538 for "National" and #590 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Livingston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Livingston: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Livingston

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Livingston at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Livingston. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

LivingstonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
OTH
Votes
West LothianBathgate20123452,45207802,668648
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh20123162,2490002,168766
West LothianEast Livingston and East Calder20123722,5960002,607380
West LothianFauldhouse and the Breich Valley20121972,6150001,800532
West LothianLinlithgow20122,1121,2920002,656305
West LothianLivingston North20124792,037132003,093390
West LothianLivingston South20123743,2880002,890312
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn20122712,59268002,172714

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

LivingstonEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LothianBathgate274410090018
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh14,4952,2152,05059702514,504009,617
West LothianEast Livingston and East Calder15,1512,1062,23965702624,7880010,052
West LothianFauldhouse and the Breich Valley12,1871,7702,23344002113,433008,087
West LothianLinlithgow727181383101122200483
West LothianLivingston North17,5572,6691,87481503045,9880011,650
West LothianLivingston South17,7992,6292,72875203085,3920011,809
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn4,3436097501650751,282002,881
 Total82,28612,18311,9163,45801,42225,6180054,597

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Livingston

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Livingston.

LivingstonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LothianBathgate274410090018
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh14,4952,4092,1945620804,372009,617
West LothianEast Livingston and East Calder15,1512,3102,3906190834,6500010,052
West LothianFauldhouse and the Breich Valley12,1871,9312,3524140673,322008,086
West LothianLinlithgow72719045290321500482
West LothianLivingston North17,5572,9072,0507670965,8290011,649
West LothianLivingston South17,7992,8682,9057080985,2300011,809
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn4,3436677931550241,243002,882
 Total82,28613,28612,7333,255045124,8700054,595

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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