Llanelli: Seat Details

Llanelli: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Nia Griffith  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:60,518
Turnout:63.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB16,12542.2%48.9%
CON11,45530.0%16.5%
Plaid7,04818.4%20.6%
Reform3,6059.4%9.9%
LIB00.0%1.4%
Green00.0%2.6%
LAB Majority4,67012.2%28.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
96%
CON
2%
Plaid
2%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Llanelli : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Llanelli constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left8° Left
National Position3° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %57%53%52%
Average Age52.051.149.5
Good Education45%49%49%
Employed52%53%58%
Homeowner69%67%63%
Car owner83%81%77%
Married45%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian48%47%50%
ABC1 Class48%52%56%
Gross Household Income£33,573£36,386£42,397
Deprivation56%54%52%
Average House Price£151,389£193,404£313,528

Llanelli ranks #241 for "Leave", #585 for "Economic Right Position", #331 for "National Position" and #472 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Llanelli: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Llanelli

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Llanelli.

LlanelliActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireBigyn4,733LABLAB4391,5233728372647003,001
CarmarthenshireBurry Port3,267LABLAB3341,2213722356205002,076
CarmarthenshireBynea3,067LABLAB3291,0072719258405002,018
CarmarthenshireDafen and Felinfoel3,860LABLAB3651,4483224666311002,468
CarmarthenshireElli1,646CONLAB2614771610727191001,079
CarmarthenshireGlanymor4,416LABLAB3561,4283325969620002,765
CarmarthenshireGlyn1,670CONLAB1994621811130225001,045
CarmarthenshireHendy2,246LABLAB2606602714741346001,481
CarmarthenshireHengoed3,106LABLAB3719032919652531002,082
CarmarthenshireKidwelly and St Ishmael2,783CONLAB3347703218347477001,843
CarmarthenshireLlangennech3,915LABLAB4821,1463524367683002,656
CarmarthenshireLlannon4,049LABLAB4491,1753626369705002,697
CarmarthenshireLliedi3,807LABLAB3911,2863324263406002,421
CarmarthenshireLlwynhendy3,132LABLAB2461,1522420354310001,989
CarmarthenshirePembrey3,366LABLAB3951,1014022358386002,203
CarmarthenshirePontyberem2,117CONLAB2425182216433366001,345
CarmarthenshireSwiss Valley2,088LABLAB3386732314436204001,418
CarmarthenshireTrimsaran1,870LABLAB1855321812530278001,168
CarmarthenshireTycroes2,072LABLAB2406291913036325001,379
CarmarthenshireTyisha3,308LABLAB2611,0702319249461002,056
 Total60,518LABLAB6,47719,1815613,8761,0138,0820039,190

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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