Louth and Horncastle: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Louth and Horncastle: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Victoria Atkins  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 79,648
Turnout: 65.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON38,02172.7%71.4%
LAB9,15317.5%20.3%
LIB4,1147.9%4.5%
OTH1,0442.0%3.3%
Green00.0%0.5%
CON Majority28,86855.2%Pred Maj 51.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Louth and Horncastle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Louth and Horncastle constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position21° Nat7° Nat
Social Position12° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %68%59%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health39%45%48%
UK Born97%90%87%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job44%48%51%
High SEC44%47%51%
Average Age54.548.948.3
ABC1 Class43%50%54%

Louth and Horncastle ranks #39 for "Leave", #199 for "Right", #6 for "National" and #8 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Louth and Horncastle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Louth and Horncastle

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Louth and Horncastle.

Louth and HorncastleActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyAlford3,792CONCON1,884455910110522,493
East LindseyBinbrook2,039CONCON1,04821448060241,340
East LindseyChapel St Leonards4,011CONCON1,673795910110662,636
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham6,788CONCON3,6475631420180914,461
East LindseyFulstow2,049CONCON1,05617658070501,347
East LindseyGrimoldby1,836CONCON84825953060421,208
East LindseyHagworthingham1,949CONCON1,02818443050211,281
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,749CONCON90515246050431,151
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby4,128CONCON1,7527371170130942,713
East LindseyHorncastle6,020CONCON2,53778441803901803,958
East LindseyLegbourne1,924CONCON1,01817842050211,264
East LindseyMablethorpe6,598CONCON2,5661,42916201901604,336
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,740CONCON1,928344960110792,458
East LindseyNorth Holme1,860CONCON71039570070411,223
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,763CONCON1,4327951450150862,473
East LindseyRoughton1,955CONCON1,01318542050401,285
East LindseySpilsby2,287CONCON1,05829783090571,504
East LindseySt Margaret's2,022CONCON84935570070461,327
East LindseySt Mary's1,872CONCON92018370070501,230
East LindseySt Michael's1,752CONCON72531466070411,153
East LindseySutton on Sea3,938CONCON1,96944872090892,587
East LindseyTetford and Donington2,048CONCON1,05816865070471,345
East LindseyTetney1,900CONCON96917553060461,249
East LindseyTrinity1,764CONCON66040055060371,158
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby2,041CONCON1,05517449060571,341
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe2,082CONCON1,06018746060701,369
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,726CONCON1,997265840100922,448
 Total79,633CONCON37,36510,6112,377026301,72252,338

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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