Mansfield: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Mansfield, or click here to find another new seat.

Mansfield: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Ben Bradley  (CON)
County/Area:Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:77,131
Turnout:63.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON31,48463.9%26.0%
LAB15,17830.8%44.8%
LIB1,6263.3%3.9%
OTH9852.0%1.9%
Reform00.0%18.9%
Green00.0%4.5%
CON Majority16,30633.1%18.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
9%
LAB
88%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
3%
Green
0%

Mansfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Mansfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position5° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
Average Age50.450.149.5
Good Education40%47%49%
Employed57%57%58%
Homeowner66%67%63%
Car owner79%81%77%
Married45%46%45%
Ethnic White95%86%83%
Christian49%48%50%
ABC1 Class44%53%56%
Gross Household Income£36,159£40,483£42,397
Deprivation57%52%52%
Average House Price£162,046£228,007£313,528

Mansfield ranks #15 for "Leave", #416 for "Economic Right Position", #23 for "National Position" and #114 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Mansfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Mansfield

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Mansfield.

MansfieldActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
MansfieldBancroft2,176CONLAB
MansfieldBerry Hill2,029CONCON
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,062CONLAB
MansfieldCarr Bank2,032CONLAB
MansfieldCentral1,990CONLAB
MansfieldEakring2,266CONLAB
MansfieldGrange Farm2,324CONLAB
MansfieldHolly Forest Town2,267CONLAB
MansfieldHornby2,051CONLAB
MansfieldKings Walk2,201CONLAB
MansfieldKingsway Forest Town2,333CONLAB
MansfieldLindhurst1,370CONLAB
MansfieldLing Forest2,030CONLAB
MansfieldManor2,307CONLAB
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,177CONLAB
MansfieldMaun Valley Forest Town2,414CONLAB
MansfieldMeden2,421CONLAB
MansfieldMill Lane2,019CONLAB
MansfieldNetherfield1,989CONLAB
MansfieldNewlands Forest Town2,110CONLAB
MansfieldOak Tree1,942CONLAB
MansfieldOakham2,205CONLAB
MansfieldPark Hall2,364CONLAB
MansfieldPenniment1,997CONLAB
MansfieldPleasley1,861CONLAB
MansfieldRacecourse2,402CONLAB
MansfieldRock Hill2,182CONLAB
MansfieldRufford2,298CONLAB
MansfieldSherwood2,051CONLAB
MansfieldSouthwell2,101CONLAB
MansfieldThompsons2,392CONCON
MansfieldVale2,169CONLAB
MansfieldWainwright2,014CONLAB
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,390CONLAB
MansfieldWest Bank2,056CONLAB
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,142CONLAB
 Total77,134CONLAB

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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