Mansfield: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Mansfield: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Ben Bradley  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 77,131
Turnout: 63.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,48463.9%62.6%
LAB15,17830.8%32.4%
LIB1,6263.3%1.9%
OTH9852.0%2.7%
Green00.0%0.3%
CON Majority16,30633.1%Pred Maj 30.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Mansfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Mansfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position5° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
British Identity21%27%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born94%90%87%
Good Education28%37%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC40%47%51%
Average Age49.148.948.3
ABC1 Class40%50%54%

Mansfield ranks #15 for "Leave", #416 for "Right", #23 for "National" and #114 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Mansfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Mansfield

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Mansfield.

MansfieldActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MansfieldAbbott2,020CONCON84938621030311,290
MansfieldBerry Hill2,497CONCON1,25125441050431,594
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,211CONCON78356430040311,412
MansfieldBroomhill1,775CONCON62646318030261,136
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2,405CONCON86261425040331,538
MansfieldCarr Bank1,929CONCON71446518030321,232
MansfieldEakring2,138CONCON95933236050341,366
MansfieldGrange Farm2,386CONCON1,07036840050401,523
MansfieldHolly2,457CONCON1,11336940050441,571
MansfieldHornby2,066CONCON89635631040321,319
MansfieldKings Walk2,097CONCON90936431040321,340
MansfieldKingsway2,061CONCON82043625040321,317
MansfieldLadybrook1,895CONCON64551317030321,210
MansfieldLindhurst2,186CONCON1,05527123040451,398
MansfieldLing Forest2,155CONCON98232431040351,376
MansfieldManor2,261CONCON94543121040441,445
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,366CONCON92550420040601,513
MansfieldMaun Valley2,695CONCON1,19443740060451,722
MansfieldMeden2,137CONCON78552319030341,364
MansfieldNetherfield2,118CONCON87338322040711,353
MansfieldNewgate1,653CONCON62337716030371,056
MansfieldNewlands2,484CONCON99948030050721,586
MansfieldOak Tree1,849CONCON66847016030251,182
MansfieldOakham1,932CONCON86930231040291,235
MansfieldPark Hall2,602CONCON97760735050381,662
MansfieldPeafields2,253CONCON91345127040441,439
MansfieldPenniment2,097CONCON72853829040401,339
MansfieldPortland1,432CONCON4763941402028914
MansfieldRacecourse1,983CONCON85535025040331,267
MansfieldRansom Wood1,964CONCON70849318030331,255
MansfieldSandhurst1,947CONCON73243937050311,244
MansfieldSherwood1,965CONCON76043725040291,255
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,743CONCON98270820040381,752
MansfieldWoodhouse2,280CONCON75664721040301,458
MansfieldWoodlands1,664CONCON69031218030401,063
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,428CONCON87461229040321,551
 Total77,131CONCON30,86615,974940014201,35549,277

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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