Mansfield: Seat Details

Mansfield: Overview

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Steve Yemm  (LAB)
County/Area:Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:73,817
Turnout:55.7%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB16,04839.1%20.0%
CON12,56330.6%24.9%
Reform9,38522.8%39.4%
Green1,3263.2%6.7%
OTH9662.4%1.5%
LIB7991.9%7.6%
LAB Majority3,4858.5%14.5%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
5%
CON
15%
Reform
80%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%

Mansfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Mansfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position4° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
Average Age50.650.149.6
Good Education40%47%51%
Employed57%57%57%
Homeowner66%67%64%
Car owner79%81%77%
Married45%46%45%
Ethnic White95%86%83%
Christian49%48%48%
ABC1 Class44%53%56%
Gross Household Income£36,457£40,483£42,397
Deprivation57%52%52%
Average House Price£162,054£228,007£313,667

Mansfield ranks #17 for "Leave", #421 for "Economic Right Position", #27 for "National Position" and #108 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Mansfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Mansfield

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Mansfield. These are not local election results, which will be different.

MansfieldActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
MansfieldBancroft2,183LABReform
MansfieldBerry Hill2,036CONCON
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,069LABReform
MansfieldCarr Bank2,039LABReform
MansfieldCentral1,997LABReform
MansfieldEakring2,273LABReform
MansfieldGrange Farm2,332CONReform
MansfieldHolly Forest Town2,274LABReform
MansfieldHornby2,058LABReform
MansfieldKings Walk2,208LABReform
MansfieldKingsway Forest Town2,341LABReform
MansfieldLindhurst606LABReform
MansfieldLing Forest2,037CONReform
MansfieldManor2,315LABReform
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,184LABReform
MansfieldMaun Valley Forest Town2,423LABReform
MansfieldMeden2,430LABReform
MansfieldMill Lane2,026LABReform
MansfieldNetherfield1,996LABReform
MansfieldNewlands Forest Town2,117LABReform
MansfieldOak Tree1,948LABReform
MansfieldOakham2,212LABReform
MansfieldPark Hall2,372LABReform
MansfieldPenniment2,004LABReform
MansfieldPleasley17LABReform
MansfieldRacecourse2,411LABReform
MansfieldRock Hill2,189LABReform
MansfieldRufford1,455LABReform
MansfieldSherwood1,946LABReform
MansfieldSouthwell2,108LABReform
MansfieldThompsons2,401CONReform
MansfieldVale2,176LABReform
MansfieldWainwright2,021LABReform
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,398LABReform
MansfieldWest Bank2,063CONReform
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,149LABReform
 Total73,814LABReform

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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